Trump’s Trade and Immigration Policies Could Cost California Farmers Billions
Source: DairyNews.today
California’s agricultural sector, which has long supported President-elect Donald Trump, faces significant financial risks from his trade policies and stance on immigration, analysts warn.
During his campaign, Trump repeatedly proposed a 60% tariff on Chinese products and a 10% tariff on imports from other countries to protect U.S. industries. However, economists caution that such protectionist measures could backfire on California’s farmers, particularly with retaliatory tariffs targeting key exports like wine, almonds, pistachios, and dairy products.
A recent study by the University of California Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics estimates that a trade war with China could have devastating effects on the state’s agricultural exports, potentially wiping out a quarter of these exports and costing the state’s economy $6 billion annually. The paper, titled "Further Trade Wars Will Harm California Agriculture," was co-authored by UC Davis economist Colin A. Carter and experts from North Dakota State University.
The authors noted that in 2018, during Trump’s previous presidency, retaliatory tariffs imposed by China on U.S. products hit California farmers hard, especially almond growers. Almond prices plummeted from $2.50 per pound before the trade war to just $1.40 per pound during the conflict. With new calls to raise tariffs on imports from not just China but other countries, there is growing concern that California’s agricultural exports could face even steeper losses in the event of a renewed trade war.
California Farm Bureau President Shannon Douglass said her organization looks forward to collaborating with the new administration and Congress to address challenges facing the state’s farmers, such as securing a sustainable water supply, improving trade policies, and addressing labor shortages.
Labor experts estimate that at least half of California’s farm workforce is undocumented and may be impacted by Trump’s calls for "mass deportation" of unauthorized immigrants. Douglass stressed the importance of bipartisan cooperation to alleviate these issues, particularly the need for immigration reform to address the chronic labor shortages in California agriculture.
"Immigration reform is essential," Douglass said, emphasizing the need to overhaul the H-2A agricultural visa program, which allows temporary foreign workers to fill on-farm jobs, and to provide legal status for undocumented farm workers.
Veteran west Valley farmer Joe Del Bosque described the prospect of mass deportations as “unimaginable,” noting that many of these workers were essential to the U.S. food supply during the COVID-19 pandemic. “They deserve to be fast-tracked to a green card, and our seasonal workers need a blue card for seasonal harvests,” Del Bosque added.
The scale of potential deportations could involve up to 11 million immigrants, a policy that many critics argue is logistically impossible and would tear apart families.
James Sayre, assistant professor of cooperative extension at UC Davis, warned that mass deportations would devastate California’s farm labor force. He also predicted that the H-2A program would have to be dramatically expanded to fill the void, despite the program’s high costs, which include providing housing and transportation for workers. Currently, about 5% of California’s farm labor force are H-2A workers, a figure Sayre expects to rise sharply if deportations occur.
The possible impacts of Trump’s trade and immigration policies have raised serious concerns in California’s agricultural community, with many urging swift legislative action to mitigate the potential fallout.
A recent study by the University of California Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics estimates that a trade war with China could have devastating effects on the state’s agricultural exports, potentially wiping out a quarter of these exports and costing the state’s economy $6 billion annually. The paper, titled "Further Trade Wars Will Harm California Agriculture," was co-authored by UC Davis economist Colin A. Carter and experts from North Dakota State University.
The authors noted that in 2018, during Trump’s previous presidency, retaliatory tariffs imposed by China on U.S. products hit California farmers hard, especially almond growers. Almond prices plummeted from $2.50 per pound before the trade war to just $1.40 per pound during the conflict. With new calls to raise tariffs on imports from not just China but other countries, there is growing concern that California’s agricultural exports could face even steeper losses in the event of a renewed trade war.
California Farm Bureau President Shannon Douglass said her organization looks forward to collaborating with the new administration and Congress to address challenges facing the state’s farmers, such as securing a sustainable water supply, improving trade policies, and addressing labor shortages.
Labor experts estimate that at least half of California’s farm workforce is undocumented and may be impacted by Trump’s calls for "mass deportation" of unauthorized immigrants. Douglass stressed the importance of bipartisan cooperation to alleviate these issues, particularly the need for immigration reform to address the chronic labor shortages in California agriculture.
"Immigration reform is essential," Douglass said, emphasizing the need to overhaul the H-2A agricultural visa program, which allows temporary foreign workers to fill on-farm jobs, and to provide legal status for undocumented farm workers.
Veteran west Valley farmer Joe Del Bosque described the prospect of mass deportations as “unimaginable,” noting that many of these workers were essential to the U.S. food supply during the COVID-19 pandemic. “They deserve to be fast-tracked to a green card, and our seasonal workers need a blue card for seasonal harvests,” Del Bosque added.
The scale of potential deportations could involve up to 11 million immigrants, a policy that many critics argue is logistically impossible and would tear apart families.
James Sayre, assistant professor of cooperative extension at UC Davis, warned that mass deportations would devastate California’s farm labor force. He also predicted that the H-2A program would have to be dramatically expanded to fill the void, despite the program’s high costs, which include providing housing and transportation for workers. Currently, about 5% of California’s farm labor force are H-2A workers, a figure Sayre expects to rise sharply if deportations occur.
The possible impacts of Trump’s trade and immigration policies have raised serious concerns in California’s agricultural community, with many urging swift legislative action to mitigate the potential fallout.
