Emerging Protein Technologies Pose Greater Threat to Dairy Than Meat in New Zealand
Source: The DairyNews
Recent research funded by the Our Land and Water National Science Challenge indicates that New Zealand's dairy industry could face more significant disruptions from new protein technologies than the meat sector.
This conclusion arises from the Protein Future Scenarios project, a collaboration between the AgriBusiness Group, Lincoln, Canterbury, and Otago universities, and the Norwegian research entity Ruralis.
The study primarily focused on the economic and environmental implications of three advanced protein technologies out to 2050. Precision fermentation, which involves using yeast and fermentation processes to replicate dairy products, is identified as particularly disruptive. Jon Manhire, the project's lead researcher from AgriBusiness, explained that this technology is already operational and scalable, posing a realistic threat to traditional dairy products.
Contrastingly, the impact from plant-based proteins and cellular cultivation appears less immediate. Manhire noted the recent closure of Sunfed, a New Zealand-based meat substitute company, suggesting that the plant-based protein sector might have reached its peak. Meanwhile, cellular cultivation is still in early development stages.
The project outlined four scenarios with varying uptake rates of these technologies and their potential impacts on New Zealand’s economy, employment, land use, and environmental metrics. The most concerning scenario suggests that if precision fermentation expands rapidly without similar growth in other technologies, New Zealand could see a 9% reduction in its dairy output, affecting the economy and employment negatively. However, this would come with environmental benefits, including reductions in nitrate and greenhouse gas emissions.
In contrast, the most optimistic scenario assumes successful integration of all three technologies, leading to significant shifts in land use from pastoral farming to arable and forestry. This would potentially increase employment and improve the national economy by 7%, alongside enhanced environmental conditions.
Despite the potential threats, New Zealand dairy companies argue that the report simplifies the unique value of dairy products and the complexity involved in substituting them. The industry emphasizes the need for a nuanced understanding of the challenges and opportunities presented by these emerging technologies.
The study primarily focused on the economic and environmental implications of three advanced protein technologies out to 2050. Precision fermentation, which involves using yeast and fermentation processes to replicate dairy products, is identified as particularly disruptive. Jon Manhire, the project's lead researcher from AgriBusiness, explained that this technology is already operational and scalable, posing a realistic threat to traditional dairy products.
Contrastingly, the impact from plant-based proteins and cellular cultivation appears less immediate. Manhire noted the recent closure of Sunfed, a New Zealand-based meat substitute company, suggesting that the plant-based protein sector might have reached its peak. Meanwhile, cellular cultivation is still in early development stages.
The project outlined four scenarios with varying uptake rates of these technologies and their potential impacts on New Zealand’s economy, employment, land use, and environmental metrics. The most concerning scenario suggests that if precision fermentation expands rapidly without similar growth in other technologies, New Zealand could see a 9% reduction in its dairy output, affecting the economy and employment negatively. However, this would come with environmental benefits, including reductions in nitrate and greenhouse gas emissions.
In contrast, the most optimistic scenario assumes successful integration of all three technologies, leading to significant shifts in land use from pastoral farming to arable and forestry. This would potentially increase employment and improve the national economy by 7%, alongside enhanced environmental conditions.
Despite the potential threats, New Zealand dairy companies argue that the report simplifies the unique value of dairy products and the complexity involved in substituting them. The industry emphasizes the need for a nuanced understanding of the challenges and opportunities presented by these emerging technologies.
23.09.2024
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