California Faces Unprecedented Dairy Crisis as H5N1 Outbreaks Surge, Impacting Milk Production and Raising Concerns Among Farmers

In addition to animal health concerns, five cases of human infection have been reported among Central Valley dairy workers. Despite assurances from health authorities that pasteurized milk remains safe for consumption, farmers are facing increased herd mortality and reduced milk production. Experts predict the outbreak could affect national milk output, with estimated losses between 0.5% to 0.8% due to California’s infection rates.

Researchers like Michael Payne from UC Davis warn that the situation may worsen, as efforts to contain the virus reveal broader infection rates than initially suspected. Daniel Sumner, an agricultural economist at UC Davis, and Nathaniel Donnay from StoneX highlight the limited impact on consumer prices so far but caution that further herd infections could lead to larger market disruptions.

Efforts are underway to contain the spread, but the potential for California to reach infection rates similar to Colorado—where up to 100% of herds were infected—raises alarms. If such levels are met, retired USDA veterinarian John Korslund suggests it could mark the most extensive infectious animal disease outbreak in U.S. history.