Brazil's Dairy Trade Balance Improves as Imports Decline and Exports of Key Products Rise
Source: The DairyNews
In May, Brazil's dairy trade balance showed significant improvement, as imports decreased sharply, and exports of several key products increased, according to the latest data from the Foreign Trade Secretariat (SECEX).
The trade balance for dairy reached a deficit of 142 million liters in milk equivalent, an improvement of 43.5 million liters from April.
Dairy exports in May continued a downward trend, with only 4.4 million liters in milk equivalent exported, a 15% decline from the previous month and also lower than the figures from May 2023. In contrast, imports for May dropped to 146.3 million liters, marking a 23% decrease from the previous month and the lowest level in the past year.
Among the dairy categories, both whole and skimmed milk powder imports experienced significant declines of 31% and 38%, respectively. Other lesser-imported dairy products, including yogurts and modified milks, also saw reductions in volumes.
However, the import of dulce de leche increased by 12% in May.
On the export front, whey showed a notable increase of 26% in exported volume. Exports of whole milk powder and UHT milk also saw increases of 25% and 24%, respectively. Meanwhile, exports of semi-skimmed milk powder and evaporated milk recorded substantial growth, with increases of 137% and 100%, respectively.
Conversely, exports of yogurts, butters, and cheeses witnessed declines of 50%, 19%, and 10% in May.
Looking ahead, the dairy sector may see a shift in import dynamics over the next two to three months. Recent price increases for dairy products in Brazil have made imported goods more competitive, particularly powdered milk, which is already priced more favorably than local offerings. However, local mozzarella, which had been more competitive, is losing its edge due to these price changes.
Despite a year-over-year decline in milk production from Brazil's main suppliers, Argentina and Uruguay, there is an expected seasonal increase in milk availability which could boost imports in the coming months. However, recent federal and state decrees aimed at limiting dairy imports could restrict this potential growth.
Overall, the Brazilian dairy market is navigating a complex landscape of fluctuating supply and demand, influenced by both domestic policies and international market conditions.
Dairy exports in May continued a downward trend, with only 4.4 million liters in milk equivalent exported, a 15% decline from the previous month and also lower than the figures from May 2023. In contrast, imports for May dropped to 146.3 million liters, marking a 23% decrease from the previous month and the lowest level in the past year.
Among the dairy categories, both whole and skimmed milk powder imports experienced significant declines of 31% and 38%, respectively. Other lesser-imported dairy products, including yogurts and modified milks, also saw reductions in volumes.
However, the import of dulce de leche increased by 12% in May.
On the export front, whey showed a notable increase of 26% in exported volume. Exports of whole milk powder and UHT milk also saw increases of 25% and 24%, respectively. Meanwhile, exports of semi-skimmed milk powder and evaporated milk recorded substantial growth, with increases of 137% and 100%, respectively.
Conversely, exports of yogurts, butters, and cheeses witnessed declines of 50%, 19%, and 10% in May.
Looking ahead, the dairy sector may see a shift in import dynamics over the next two to three months. Recent price increases for dairy products in Brazil have made imported goods more competitive, particularly powdered milk, which is already priced more favorably than local offerings. However, local mozzarella, which had been more competitive, is losing its edge due to these price changes.
Despite a year-over-year decline in milk production from Brazil's main suppliers, Argentina and Uruguay, there is an expected seasonal increase in milk availability which could boost imports in the coming months. However, recent federal and state decrees aimed at limiting dairy imports could restrict this potential growth.
Overall, the Brazilian dairy market is navigating a complex landscape of fluctuating supply and demand, influenced by both domestic policies and international market conditions.
