U.S. Whey Exports Face Headwinds in October as Low-Protein Demand Slips
Source: DairyNews.today
U.S. whey exports encountered challenges in October, marking a rare setback for a category that has largely performed well this year. Low-protein whey products bore the brunt of the decline, with total shipments falling year-over-year for the first time since March, the U.S. Dairy Export Council (USDEC) reported.
Overall, low-protein whey exports dropped across key product categories:
Permeate: Down 20% (-3,431 metric tons)
Whey protein concentrate (0404.10): Down 14% (-1,837 metric tons)
Dry whey: Down 2% (-230 metric tons)
Southeast Asia Weakens
Southeast Asia (SEA), a key market for U.S. low-protein whey, drove much of the October decline. Exports to the region fell 21% (-2,706 metric tons) year-over-year, led by steep drops in shipments to the Philippines (-38%, -993 MT), Malaysia (-52%, -441 MT), Thailand (-42%, -483 MT), and Vietnam (-17%, -799 MT).
Despite October’s underperformance, year-to-date (YTD) low-protein whey exports to SEA remained 13% ahead of 2023 levels (+13,036 MT), underscoring the region’s overall importance to U.S. whey exporters.
Other Regional Challenges
Weak demand extended beyond Southeast Asia:
Mexico: Down 22% (-1,099 MT)
Japan: Down 51% (-964 MT)
In China, low-protein whey exports edged up 1% (+141 MT), driven by gains in dry whey and whey protein concentrate, though declining permeate shipments tempered the total. However, concerns loom over an anticipated slowdown in Chinese pork production, which could dampen demand for U.S. whey as piglet feed.
High-Protein Whey Exports Show Mixed Signals
While low-protein whey stumbled, high-protein whey exports (WPC80+) officially surged 25% (+1,551 MT) in October. This growth was bolstered by a 225% increase (+2,779 MT) in shipments to China. However, discrepancies in export unit values suggest some lower-protein whey products may be misclassified under the high-protein category, inflating the numbers for WPC80+ while understating low-protein totals.
Outside of China, high-protein whey demand showed signs of strain:
Japan and Korea: Down 39% (-661 MT)
Canada: Down 50% (-565 MT)
South America: Down 26% (-156 MT), marking the third consecutive month of year-over-year declines, likely due to price resistance.
The October performance underscores growing regional disparities in U.S. whey export demand. While high-protein products maintain momentum in sel ect markets, including China, softness in key regions for low-protein whey, coupled with potential headwinds fr om a slowdown in Chinese pork production, may challenge U.S. exporters in the months ahead. Addressing pricing and market diversification will be crucial to navigating these dynamics.
Permeate: Down 20% (-3,431 metric tons)
Whey protein concentrate (0404.10): Down 14% (-1,837 metric tons)
Dry whey: Down 2% (-230 metric tons)
Southeast Asia Weakens
Southeast Asia (SEA), a key market for U.S. low-protein whey, drove much of the October decline. Exports to the region fell 21% (-2,706 metric tons) year-over-year, led by steep drops in shipments to the Philippines (-38%, -993 MT), Malaysia (-52%, -441 MT), Thailand (-42%, -483 MT), and Vietnam (-17%, -799 MT).
Despite October’s underperformance, year-to-date (YTD) low-protein whey exports to SEA remained 13% ahead of 2023 levels (+13,036 MT), underscoring the region’s overall importance to U.S. whey exporters.
Other Regional Challenges
Weak demand extended beyond Southeast Asia:
Mexico: Down 22% (-1,099 MT)
Japan: Down 51% (-964 MT)
In China, low-protein whey exports edged up 1% (+141 MT), driven by gains in dry whey and whey protein concentrate, though declining permeate shipments tempered the total. However, concerns loom over an anticipated slowdown in Chinese pork production, which could dampen demand for U.S. whey as piglet feed.
High-Protein Whey Exports Show Mixed Signals
While low-protein whey stumbled, high-protein whey exports (WPC80+) officially surged 25% (+1,551 MT) in October. This growth was bolstered by a 225% increase (+2,779 MT) in shipments to China. However, discrepancies in export unit values suggest some lower-protein whey products may be misclassified under the high-protein category, inflating the numbers for WPC80+ while understating low-protein totals.
Outside of China, high-protein whey demand showed signs of strain:
Japan and Korea: Down 39% (-661 MT)
Canada: Down 50% (-565 MT)
South America: Down 26% (-156 MT), marking the third consecutive month of year-over-year declines, likely due to price resistance.
The October performance underscores growing regional disparities in U.S. whey export demand. While high-protein products maintain momentum in sel ect markets, including China, softness in key regions for low-protein whey, coupled with potential headwinds fr om a slowdown in Chinese pork production, may challenge U.S. exporters in the months ahead. Addressing pricing and market diversification will be crucial to navigating these dynamics.
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