Milk Prices Rise in Minas Gerais as Market Loses Momentum
Minas Gerais is expected to remain one of the few Brazilian states recording higher milk prices in the next payment cycle. The Centro de Inteligência do Leite of Embrapa Gado de Leite, known as CILeite, estimates that the state’s average quotation will rise by 1.2% in September for milk delivered in August.
The outlook is weaker than the support seen in August. Signals from the Conseleites indicated declines in most regions, while Minas Gerais was the only state to register an increase. Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina all recorded reductions, reinforcing a more negative direction for the wider market.
Imports are among the factors affecting domestic negotiations. Data from Brazil’s Secretariat of Foreign Trade show that external purchases of powdered milk rose by 9.01% between June and July, reaching 236.3m litres in milk equivalent. Compared with July 2025, the volume was 33.49% higher.
Foreign purchases of cheese also increased, gaining 12.7% from June to July. The additional supply has affected the internal market and the negotiations conducted by domestic buyers and sellers.
At the industrial level, price formation for processed dairy products has become more difficult. Research by Cepea found that negotiations for mozzarella and powdered milk slowed in July, with imports cited as one factor associated with the weaker pace. The pressure on derivative prices has reduced the room for further increases in the price paid for raw milk.
Cepea said the next payment may decline because processors are facing difficulty preserving margins on dairy products, while imports are expanding and farm output is increasing as the end of the off-season approaches. Brazil’s Milk Collection Index, or ICAP-L, rose 2.38% in July on a national average basis. Despite that monthly increase, the index remained 9.3% lower for the year to date.
The market is therefore showing sustained prices in Minas Gerais alongside factors weighing on future quotations. The immediate expectation is for another increase in the state, but at a slower pace, while imports, supply and processed dairy prices play a larger role in the next round of negotiations.
