Global Milk Production Set to Increase by 0.8% in 2025: Rabobank

According to a report from Rabobank, the latter half of 2024 was pivotal in boosting milk supply growth across the seven major exporting regions. This uptick in production has led the bank to predict a 0.8% increase in global milk output for 2025.

For the first time since 2020, these regions are anticipated to achieve gains across the board. Rabobank remains cautiously optimistic, noting that potential disruptions from disease outbreaks in parts of Europe and the United States appear to be contained. Notably, producer milk prices are showing upward trends, providing economic breathing room for dairy farmers, as worldwide concentrated feed markets exhibit favorable prices and availability.

Implications for Major Markets

Rabobank's analysis underscores varying dynamics in key markets such as the United States, where milk production has recovered as profit margins improve. Although avian influenza continues to spread, its impact on dairy production and trade has been limited. However, geopolitical risks loom, including increased U.S. protectionism and potential trade tensions, which could disrupt dairy exports and labor availability.

The report further observes mixed global dairy demand, with consumer spending under pressure in numerous economies. While retail sales receive some support from increased home consumption, emerging markets show signs of declining purchases.

As the global dairy industry looks toward 2025, uncertainties about trade policies under the Trump administration and their impact on market dynamics remain significant concerns.