China's Record Dairy Imports in 2025 Amid Economic Challenges

Despite economic challenges and a drive for self-sufficiency, China is on track to import record volumes of cheese and butter in 2025, according to the Daily Dairy Report. China continues to import significant amounts of high-value dairy products like butter and cheese, even as the country faces domestic economic issues and invests heavily in local dairy farms to reduce import reliance.

Through September 2025, cheese imports have increased by 13.5% compared to September 2024, reaching 31.5 million pounds. Year-to-date, cheese imports are 8.7% ahead of the same period in 2024, with butter imports rising by 8.8% to 23.7 million pounds. Whole Milk Powder (WMP) imports, primarily from New Zealand, saw a 41% growth in September, totaling 32.3 million pounds, despite a weak comparison month in 2024.

In contrast, Skim Milk Powder (SMP) imports decreased by 3% from September 2024, hitting 18.6 million pounds, the lowest September figure since 2011, and whey imports fell by 3.1%. U.S. whey exports to China showed resilience, with only a 0.5% drop despite trade tensions. However, China's plan to reduce its hog population by 1 million breeding sows may impact future whey imports.

China's third-quarter GDP growth met expectations at 4.8%, but it was the smallest increase in a year. A 0.5% decrease in fixed-asset investment, especially in real estate, highlights ongoing economic issues. The Daily Dairy Report suggests a significant surge in U.S. dairy exports to China is unlikely unless the Chinese economy shows sustained strength.