Brazilian Milk Prices Surge by 33% in First Half of 2026
The price of milk for producers in Brazil saw a significant rise of 33.1% over the first half of 2026, as per data from the Cepea (Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics) at Esalq/USP. The average price during this period was R$ 2.4659 per liter, which, despite the notable increase, is still 14% lower compared to the same period in 2025.
In June, the price of raw milk collected by dairies reached R$ 2.7464 per liter, marking a 3.02% increase from May. However, when adjusted for inflation using the IPCA index, this price is still 0.86% below June of the previous year.
Cepea attributes this price increase to a steady market for dairy products and a slower-than-expected growth in milk collection in some producing regions. The ICAP-L (Milk Collection Index) reflects this trend, showing a 2.76% increase from May to June, although the overall yearly performance remains negative with an 11.4% decline.
The Effective Operational Cost (COE) for producers remained relatively stable in June, slightly increasing by 0.24%. This stability is attributed to a decrease in the cost of raw materials used in feed, which offset the increased demand for these inputs. Over the entire first half of the year, the COE rose by 2.04%.
In the dairy sector, prices for derivatives showed mixed results in June. According to Cepea and the OCB (Brazilian Cooperatives Organization), mozzarella cheese and powdered milk prices saw modest increases of 0.08% and 0.38%, respectively, ending the month at R$ 35.19/kg and R$ 31.89/kg. Conversely, UHT milk experienced a significant price drop of 3.07% from May, closing at R$ 4.53/liter.
On the international front, dairy imports decreased by 4.17% from May to June, totaling 216.76 million liters in milk equivalent, according to Secex data. Despite the monthly decline, imports are significantly higher than the same time last year, with a 35.11% increase from June 2025. For the first half of the year, imports are up 14% compared to the same period last year.
Cepea notes that reduced stock levels and slower milk collection growth have kept demand for raw materials high among dairies, delaying price adjustments. The organization anticipates stability with a potential upward trend in the coming months as milk supply gradually increases in the third quarter.
