Survey: Irish Dairy Farmers to Cut Cattle Numbers if Nitrates Derogation Ends

According to a survey conducted by the Irish Creamery Milk Suppliers' Association (ICMSA), if Ireland's nitrates derogation is not renewed, around one-fifth of dairy farmers plan to reduce their cattle numbers by up to a quarter. This would represent a substantial shift in farming operations for many in the industry.

The survey, which involved 550 respondents, revealed varying degrees of potential changes depending on the renewal outcome of the derogation. Notably, 6.2% of participants stated they would cease dairy farming entirely without the derogation, while just under 2% indicated an intention to cut their cattle numbers by more than half.

For those considering reductions, the largest portion, approximately 20.4%, would decrease their herds by 15% to 24%. A further 12.7% of respondents might cut cow numbers by 25% to 50%. Less severe reductions were considered by nearly 17% of respondents, who reported potential cuts of 5% to 14%, and just under 6% who would reduce numbers by less than 5%.

Facing potential impacts from such regulatory changes, only a small fraction of farmers expressed interest in availing the 60% grant aid for nutrient storage investments through the Targeted Agriculture Modernisation Scheme (TAMS). A combined 64% were unlikely or very unlikely to uptake this support, despite it being available to mitigate challenges posed by the loss of derogation.

In terms of farm succession, the survey uncovered that considerably less than half of the respondents (42.4%) have no future family member interested in continuing a farming legacy, while the remainder do. Additionally, about 64.4% of the respondents have already made a will, indicating formal plans for their enterprises' future amidst pressing environmental governance considerations.