Australia’s Milk Production Set for Continued Growth, Rabobank Report Projects
Source: DairyNews.today
Australia's milk production is on a path of steady recovery, according to Rabobank’s latest Global Dairy Quarterly report. The report, titled Market Narratives are Shifting, highlights that while global milk supply is expected to increase modestly in the coming year, Australia’s production shows a more robust recovery trajectory.
For the 2023/24 season, which concluded in June, Australian milk production reached 8.4 billion liters, marking a 3.1% increase over the previous year—equivalent to an additional 249 million liters. However, Rabobank projects a more tempered growth rate for the 2024/25 season, forecasting an increase of 1.5%.
Michael Harvey, RaboResearch’s senior dairy analyst, noted that the growth in Australian milk supply has been widespread across nearly all states and regions, with New South Wales leading with an impressive 5.3% production increase. The only exception has been western Victoria, where dry conditions have constrained output.
"Seasonal conditions remain mixed across key dairying regions," Harvey observed. "While western Victoria and South Australia have faced severe rainfall deficiencies in 2024, other regions have experienced mostly favorable conditions, contributing to overall production gains."
Global Dairy Market Outlook
The global dairy market is described as “balanced, but sensitive to change” in the report, with potential shifts anticipated as production increases and markets adjust in the coming year.
Harvey emphasized that milk production in the major global dairy-exporting regions—the EU, US, New Zealand, Australia, Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay—has seen minimal growth since the second half of 2021, with only three quarters showing an increase. However, high dairy prices in the first half of 2024, coupled with lower feed costs, have improved farmer margins, prompting a cautious optimism for production growth.
Rabobank forecasts a modest 0.14% increase in milk supply from these key exporting regions for 2024. Looking ahead to 2025, the bank anticipates a more significant production lift of 0.65% year-on-year, potentially pushing global milk supply from these regions above the five-year average.
As global and domestic dairy markets continue to navigate these changes, Australia’s milk production growth will be closely monitored, offering critical insights into broader trends within the industry.
Michael Harvey, RaboResearch’s senior dairy analyst, noted that the growth in Australian milk supply has been widespread across nearly all states and regions, with New South Wales leading with an impressive 5.3% production increase. The only exception has been western Victoria, where dry conditions have constrained output.
"Seasonal conditions remain mixed across key dairying regions," Harvey observed. "While western Victoria and South Australia have faced severe rainfall deficiencies in 2024, other regions have experienced mostly favorable conditions, contributing to overall production gains."
Global Dairy Market Outlook
The global dairy market is described as “balanced, but sensitive to change” in the report, with potential shifts anticipated as production increases and markets adjust in the coming year.
Harvey emphasized that milk production in the major global dairy-exporting regions—the EU, US, New Zealand, Australia, Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay—has seen minimal growth since the second half of 2021, with only three quarters showing an increase. However, high dairy prices in the first half of 2024, coupled with lower feed costs, have improved farmer margins, prompting a cautious optimism for production growth.
Rabobank forecasts a modest 0.14% increase in milk supply from these key exporting regions for 2024. Looking ahead to 2025, the bank anticipates a more significant production lift of 0.65% year-on-year, potentially pushing global milk supply from these regions above the five-year average.
As global and domestic dairy markets continue to navigate these changes, Australia’s milk production growth will be closely monitored, offering critical insights into broader trends within the industry.
23.09.2024
Carbon emissions in global milk production - the elephant in the room
I have been thinking to make this post yes/ no. I decided for yes and like to ask everyone to not "shoot the messenger". The chart shows an analysis of IFCN Dairy Research Network from the 2024 supporter conference in Poland.
