The Population of Southern Kazakhstan Is Driving New Demand for Dairy Products — Mikhail Mishchenko

“The southern regions — Turkistan, Zhambyl, Almaty regions, as well as the city of Shymkent — now account for nearly half of Kazakhstan’s population, and this is where the most active population growth is taking place,” noted Mikhail Mishchenko. According to him, this trend is causing a structural shift in the market:

“People are moving to where it’s warmer and where urban agglomerations are developing. We’re seeing faster growth in the number of young families in the south and in the capital region — and, accordingly, a rise in new consumers of milk and baby food.”

These insights are supported by official figures presented during the lecture. According to the data for 2024, the regions with the highest total milk consumption were:

• Almaty Region — 348 thousand tons

• Turkistan Region — 331 thousand tons

• Shymkent — 284 thousand tons

• Zhambyl Region — 195 thousand tons

• East Kazakhstan Region — 204 thousand tons

• Akmola Region and Astana — 223 thousand tons

During the conference, Mikhail Mishchenko also emphasized the difference between consumption patterns and actual sales volumes. He noted that if we look at milk sales through retail chains, the highest figures are observed in major cities and densely populated regions:

• Almaty — 294 thousand tons

• Akmola Region and Astana — 209 thousand tons

• Shymkent — 165 thousand tons

• Turkistan Region — 93 thousand tons

• Almaty Region — 130 thousand tons

“We can see that Almaty and Astana are retail giants, even though they’re not the largest in terms of population. This is due to a higher standard of living, a larger share of organized retail, and a wider product assortment,” Mishchenko explained.

At the same time, he drew attention to a worrying trend — the population decline in traditional dairy-producing regions, such as the North Kazakhstan Region:

“This is the country’s top dairy region, but it’s losing population. For the industry, this should be a clear signal to rethink strategic priorities,” he emphasized.

The lecture also touched on the spending structure of Kazakhstani consumers on dairy products. According to 2024 data, the average resident spends about 137,000 tenge per year on dairy products, plus an additional 4,000 tenge on dairy-based items consumed in food service establishments.