The Real Numbers Behind Dairy Production in Kazakhstan: Mikhail Mishchenko on Statistics, Growth, and Risk Zones

According to official data from the Bureau of National Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan, a total of 3.57 million tons of milk was produced across all categories of farms in 2024. However, dairy expert and DairyNews.today publisher Mikhail Mishchenko highlighted several inconsistencies in the figures during the online lecture “Kazakhstan’s Dairy Market — What Do the Numbers Say?” held on June 26 for industry participants.

“Milk production, according to the official statistics, dropped by nearly 45%, while the number of dairy cows decreased by only 8.5%,” Mishchenko pointed out.

He explained that if one analyzes the data for agricultural enterprises separately, the picture makes sense: milk production grew by 14%, and the herd size increased by 5% — reflecting investments and state subsidies in the sector.

“However, the situation with peasant farms (KFH) and household farms remains confusing. According to official data, milk production by KFH nearly halved, even though the number of cows stayed virtually the same,” he added.

Mishchenko also raised concerns about inconsistencies in the reported total cattle population. As of April 1, 2025, the Bureau reported 8.9 million head of cattle, making Kazakhstan the fastest-growing country in the CIS in this regard.

“But if these figures were accurate, we should be seeing much more meat and milk on the market — and we aren’t,” he commented.

“The situation with livestock imports is extremely difficult — bringing in animals is virtually impossible,” Mishchenko noted.

Regions Showing the Most Dynamic Growth in Milk Production:

• North Kazakhstan Region: +87%

• Almaty Region: +28%

• Zhetysu Region: +13.7%

The North Kazakhstan Region remains the leader, providing the majority of milk supply to the capital region.

“Northern Kazakhstan is a key development zone, especially given the milk shortage in the south,” Mishchenko emphasized.

According to the expert, consumer spending on dairy products in Kazakhstan continued to grow — both in tenge and in U.S. dollars. In 2024, dairy expenditures increased by 21% in tenge and by 17.35% in USD.

“This points to the market’s high price sensitivity. The rise in spending is primarily due to higher prices, not increased physical consumption,” he stressed.

He also addressed price dynamics in more detail. While 2023 saw a sharp spike in prices for milk and dairy products, the rate of inflation slowed down in 2024, which Mishchenko sees as a positive sign for the sector.