In Russia, Dairy Suppliers Prepare for Autumn Price Adjustment: Retail Chains and Restaurants Expect Increases Up to 20%

Independent consultant for suppliers Mikhail Lachugin confirms: "The discussed increase ranges from 2% to 15%, but some producers are also stating 20%."

Dairy producers clarify that this is not a "spike" in prices but rather a compensation for inflationary pressure. "An increase within the range of 5–7% merely reflects the rise in costs, and even then not completely," explained one of the companies.

According to Sergey Rumyantsev, founder of the One Price Coffee chain, suppliers are already raising milk prices by about 10%.

Meanwhile, retail chains traditionally negotiate with producers. "Price revisions in the autumn period are a systematic practice. Producers adjust wholesale prices based on increased production costs," notes Artem Belov, CEO of Soyuzmoloko.

The main drivers of cost increases remain:

• rising expenses for personnel and equipment maintenance,

• increased tariffs for energy resources and utilities,

• more expensive packaging and logistics,

• the ongoing shortage of cream on the market, especially from Belarus, a key supplier for Russia.

"The cost of dairy products is increasing this year in line with overall food inflation. We do not expect sharp price spikes," emphasizes Artem Belov.

Stanislav Bogdanov, Chairman of the Presidium of AKORT, is confident that high competition in the dairy category will restrain price growth. "Social category milk has increased by 7.7% over the past year, butter by 8.5%, which is below the level of food inflation," he cites. Moreover, in August compared to July, there was a decrease in prices for entry-level milk and butter.

Experts remind that autumn adjustments are traditionally conducted twice a year — in spring and autumn. Wholesale price increases are stretched over time. Chains can keep products on promotion for several months and then gradually raise the price.

According to Milknews, from January to July 2025, the production of marketable milk increased by 2.1%, reaching 15.9 million tons. The positive trend is due to favorable weather conditions and increased productivity in the organized sector. However, production in households and small farms continues to decline.

Despite a roughly 6% year-on-year increase in production costs, experts do not anticipate a milk shortage. "Raw material output continues to grow, and accumulated warehouse stocks help smooth out price fluctuations," adds Alexey Voronin, Director of the Analytics Department at Soyuzmoloko.

In Belarus, according to Belstat, in March 2025, dairy products were among the leaders in price increases. Prices for curds rose by 4.4%, whole milk by 3.8%, and cottage cheese by 3.5%. These trends add pressure to the Russian market, given the dependency on Belarusian supplies.