US Milk Production Declines Continuously as Dairy Sector Adapts to New Productivity Metrics
Source: The DairyNews
US milk production has experienced its 11th consecutive monthly decline, falling 0.9% this May, according to the latest CoBank Quarterly. Since 1931, the USDA has used milk production as a key metric for measuring dairy productivity in the US.
However, significant changes in milk composition since 2011, including record-high butterfat and protein percentages, have prompted a shift in productivity standards.
From 2011 to 2023, butterfat production from farms surged by 27.9% to 9.3 billion pounds, while milk production saw a more modest increase of 15.4% to 226.4 billion pounds. The trend towards higher butterfat and protein content, which has been on the rise in 10 of the past 11 months, reflects a shift in consumer preference towards more nutrient-dense dairy products.
This shift is underscored by recent cheese market dynamics. Despite a slow start in 2023, with domestic cheese consumption down over 3.5% in January and February, consumption rebounded in March and April. The lower cheese prices on the spot CME market have also bolstered international sales, with US cheese exports surpassing 100 million pounds monthly since March, marking significant year-over-year growth.
Dairy cow culling through June 22 has decreased by 218,500 head compared to last year, significantly deviating from the four-year national trend. This reduction is partly due to the burgeoning beef-on-dairy market, which has produced between 3 million to 3.25 million animals from a beef sire and a dairy dam. The resulting scarcity in dairy heifer replacements has pushed replacement values above $3,000 at several auction markets, signaling a tight inventory that is unlikely to reverse in the near term.
Moreover, the dairy sector is grappling with the impacts of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), affecting cows in at least a dozen states. Though major dairy states like California and Wisconsin have reported no cases through mid-June, the industry is anticipating a vaccine, as announced by USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack, to mitigate the virus's impact on cattle and milk production.
From 2011 to 2023, butterfat production from farms surged by 27.9% to 9.3 billion pounds, while milk production saw a more modest increase of 15.4% to 226.4 billion pounds. The trend towards higher butterfat and protein content, which has been on the rise in 10 of the past 11 months, reflects a shift in consumer preference towards more nutrient-dense dairy products.
This shift is underscored by recent cheese market dynamics. Despite a slow start in 2023, with domestic cheese consumption down over 3.5% in January and February, consumption rebounded in March and April. The lower cheese prices on the spot CME market have also bolstered international sales, with US cheese exports surpassing 100 million pounds monthly since March, marking significant year-over-year growth.
Dairy cow culling through June 22 has decreased by 218,500 head compared to last year, significantly deviating from the four-year national trend. This reduction is partly due to the burgeoning beef-on-dairy market, which has produced between 3 million to 3.25 million animals from a beef sire and a dairy dam. The resulting scarcity in dairy heifer replacements has pushed replacement values above $3,000 at several auction markets, signaling a tight inventory that is unlikely to reverse in the near term.
Moreover, the dairy sector is grappling with the impacts of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), affecting cows in at least a dozen states. Though major dairy states like California and Wisconsin have reported no cases through mid-June, the industry is anticipating a vaccine, as announced by USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack, to mitigate the virus's impact on cattle and milk production.
