US Meat, Dairy Prices Could Surge if Trump Proceeds with Mass Deportations
Source: DairyNews.today
The U.S. meat and dairy industries, heavily reliant on undocumented labor, could face significant disruptions and soaring prices if President-elect Donald Trump carries out his plans for large-scale deportations, industry experts warn.
Trump, who campaigned on promises of the "largest deportation operation in American history," has reiterated his intention to deport millions of undocumented immigrants, beginning with those convicted of crimes and expanding to families with mixed immigration statuses. The financial and logistical costs of such an operation would be massive, with estimates from the American Immigration Council placing the expense at nearly $1 trillion over a decade.
Impact on Meatpacking and Dairy Industries
Undocumented workers comprise about 23% of the U.S. meatpacking workforce, while 42% of employees in the sector are foreign-born, according to Steven Hubbard, senior data scientist at the American Immigration Council. This reliance has historically made the industry a target for immigration enforcement, including high-profile raids during Trump’s first term.
Meatpacking, characterized by low wages and hazardous working conditions, relies on a vulnerable labor pool. A 2018 analysis revealed that U.S. meat plants report amputations at an alarming rate of twice per week. While some facilities employ incarcerated laborers, most of the workforce is made up of immigrants, many of whom are undocumented.
“Low-cost poultry and meat production in the U.S. has been sustained on the backs of low-wage workers, many with precarious legal statuses,” said Angela Stuesse, an anthropologist at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
The dairy industry, too, could face dire consequences. A report from Texas A&M Agrilife Research suggested that eliminating immigrant labor from U.S. dairy farms would nearly double retail milk prices.
Corporate Responses and Labor Shortages
Meatpacking giants such as Tyson Foods and National Beef have sought to downplay potential disruptions. National Beef CEO Tim Klein recently assured shareholders that prior immigration crackdowns had “not impacted our business.” Similarly, Tyson Foods CEO Donnie King emphasized the company’s resilience across political administrations.
However, labor shortages remain a pressing challenge. Cesar Escalante, an agricultural economist at the University of Georgia, suggests expanding the H-2A visa program to include year-round livestock workers as a potential solution. Smaller farms, lacking resources to mechanize or absorb rising costs, are particularly vulnerable to labor disruptions.
Consumer Costs and Economic Uncertainty
If deportations proceed, consumers could see sharp price increases for staples like meat and dairy. The extent of the impact remains unclear, as details of Trump’s immigration plans have yet to be fully articulated.
“These industries are already struggling with tight labor supply,” Hubbard said. “Deporting a significant portion of their workforce could have cascading effects across the supply chain, ultimately hitting consumers at the checkout line.”
As the industry braces for potential upheaval, questions remain about how Trump’s administration will balance enforcement with the economic realities of America’s agricultural and food sectors.
Impact on Meatpacking and Dairy Industries
Undocumented workers comprise about 23% of the U.S. meatpacking workforce, while 42% of employees in the sector are foreign-born, according to Steven Hubbard, senior data scientist at the American Immigration Council. This reliance has historically made the industry a target for immigration enforcement, including high-profile raids during Trump’s first term.
Meatpacking, characterized by low wages and hazardous working conditions, relies on a vulnerable labor pool. A 2018 analysis revealed that U.S. meat plants report amputations at an alarming rate of twice per week. While some facilities employ incarcerated laborers, most of the workforce is made up of immigrants, many of whom are undocumented.
“Low-cost poultry and meat production in the U.S. has been sustained on the backs of low-wage workers, many with precarious legal statuses,” said Angela Stuesse, an anthropologist at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
The dairy industry, too, could face dire consequences. A report from Texas A&M Agrilife Research suggested that eliminating immigrant labor from U.S. dairy farms would nearly double retail milk prices.
Corporate Responses and Labor Shortages
Meatpacking giants such as Tyson Foods and National Beef have sought to downplay potential disruptions. National Beef CEO Tim Klein recently assured shareholders that prior immigration crackdowns had “not impacted our business.” Similarly, Tyson Foods CEO Donnie King emphasized the company’s resilience across political administrations.
However, labor shortages remain a pressing challenge. Cesar Escalante, an agricultural economist at the University of Georgia, suggests expanding the H-2A visa program to include year-round livestock workers as a potential solution. Smaller farms, lacking resources to mechanize or absorb rising costs, are particularly vulnerable to labor disruptions.
Consumer Costs and Economic Uncertainty
If deportations proceed, consumers could see sharp price increases for staples like meat and dairy. The extent of the impact remains unclear, as details of Trump’s immigration plans have yet to be fully articulated.
“These industries are already struggling with tight labor supply,” Hubbard said. “Deporting a significant portion of their workforce could have cascading effects across the supply chain, ultimately hitting consumers at the checkout line.”
As the industry braces for potential upheaval, questions remain about how Trump’s administration will balance enforcement with the economic realities of America’s agricultural and food sectors.
