US Dairy Industry Sees Continued Decline in Cow Numbers and Milk Production

Key Highlights from the July 2024 USDA Report
Total U.S. Milk Production: The preliminary estimate for July 2024 stood at 18.915 billion pounds, marking a 0.4% decrease from the same month in the previous year.

Cow Numbers: The U.S. dairy herd was estimated at 9.325 million head in July 2024, a decrease of 43,000 cows compared to July 2023. However, this represents a slight increase of 5,000 cows from June 2024, suggesting some fluctuation in herd sizes.

Milk Production Per Cow: Despite the overall decline in production, the average milk yield per cow increased slightly, up 1 pound from July 2023 to 2,028 pounds. In the 24 major dairy states, the average yield per cow was 2,047 pounds, an increase of 2 pounds from the previous year.

24-State Production Figures: Milk production in the 24 major dairy states totaled 18.171 billion pounds, a 0.2% decrease compared to July 2023. These states also saw a reduction in cow numbers, down by 31,000 head from a year earlier, though up by 3,000 head from the revised June 2024 estimate.

Regional Variations in Cow Numbers and Milk Output
The report highlighted significant regional variations in both cow numbers and milk output per cow. For instance, Texas and South Dakota saw substantial year-over-year growth in their dairy herds, with a combined increase of 33,000 head in July 2024. This growth was offset by a sharp reduction of 31,000 cows in New Mexico.

Milk output per cow also varied widely across states, influenced by factors such as regional weather conditions, feed costs, and income margins. States like Georgia, Texas, New Mexico, and Ohio reported increases in per-cow production ranging from 20 to 85 pounds compared to July 2023. In contrast, states like Colorado, Minnesota, Idaho, and Vermont saw declines in per-cow output by 20 to 49 pounds.

Milk Production Trends
Despite an extra production day in July 2024 compared to June, overall milk production still trended downward. Six states reported a combined increase of 131 million pounds, led by Texas (up 80 million pounds), South Dakota (up 29 million pounds), and Kansas (up 10 million pounds). However, these gains were outweighed by production declines in 17 states, which saw a combined reduction of 176 million pounds. New Mexico, Minnesota, Arizona, and Idaho experienced the most significant decreases.

South Dakota emerged as the percentage growth leader in milk production, with a 7.42% increase from July 2023. Texas followed with a 5.97% increase. Conversely, New Mexico saw the steepest decline, with production down 8.91% year-over-year, followed by Arizona (down 4.76%) and Minnesota (down 3.99%).

The USDA also revised its June 2024 milk production estimate slightly lower, indicating a 1.5% decrease from June 2023. The data reflects the continued pressures facing the U.S. dairy industry, including fluctuating herd sizes, regional production disparities, and broader economic challenges. As the industry adapts to these ongoing issues, monitoring these trends will be crucial for stakeholders aiming to navigate the shifting landscape.