U.S. Milk Production Dips for Sixth Consecutive Month, Sparks Concerns for Dairy Farms
Sourse: The DairyNews
The latest data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture reveals that milk production in the country has remained below last year's levels for the sixth consecutive month.
Preliminary figures for December indicate a total output of 18.84 billion pounds, marking a 0.3% decrease compared to December 2022. The top 24-state total, at 18.1 billion pounds, also witnessed a slight decline of 0.1%.
Notably, the November 50-state total was revised downward by 24 million pounds, maintaining a 0.7% decrease from 2022, unchanged from the previous month's report. The revision for the 24-state total was 14 million pounds lower, reflecting a 0.6% decline.
The report highlights a decrease in cow numbers, totaling 9.357 million, down by 1,000 from November and 39,000 less than the previous year. This decline has brought the current herd size to its smallest since June 2020. The output per cow in the 50 states averaged 2,014 pounds, showing an increase of 85 pounds from November and 2 pounds (0.1%) higher than December 2022. The 24-state output averaged 2,030 pounds, up 85 pounds from November but slightly below the figures from a year ago.
Region-specific insights indicate California's production dip by 1.0%, with Wisconsin experiencing a 0.5% increase, and Idaho facing a 0.7% decrease. Michigan, Minnesota, and New Mexico show varied results, with losses and gains in production attributed to changes in cow numbers and output per cow.
Analysts from StoneX note that the report had no major surprises, emphasizing that while milk production remains somewhat subdued, milk components remain robust. HighGround Dairy (HGD) expresses a cautious outlook, suggesting that growth in the dairy sector will stem from improved productivity rather than an increase in herd size. With the smallest herd in over four years and low heifer inventories, the forecast for 2024 does not anticipate significant growth in cow numbers.
The report also highlights signs of financial strain on U.S. dairy farms, indicating a lack of growth in the cow herd and a potential disincentive to reverse this trend. Despite adequate supplies of fresh milk, the industry is grappling with challenges that may impact its trajectory in the coming months.
Notably, the November 50-state total was revised downward by 24 million pounds, maintaining a 0.7% decrease from 2022, unchanged from the previous month's report. The revision for the 24-state total was 14 million pounds lower, reflecting a 0.6% decline.
The report highlights a decrease in cow numbers, totaling 9.357 million, down by 1,000 from November and 39,000 less than the previous year. This decline has brought the current herd size to its smallest since June 2020. The output per cow in the 50 states averaged 2,014 pounds, showing an increase of 85 pounds from November and 2 pounds (0.1%) higher than December 2022. The 24-state output averaged 2,030 pounds, up 85 pounds from November but slightly below the figures from a year ago.
Region-specific insights indicate California's production dip by 1.0%, with Wisconsin experiencing a 0.5% increase, and Idaho facing a 0.7% decrease. Michigan, Minnesota, and New Mexico show varied results, with losses and gains in production attributed to changes in cow numbers and output per cow.
Analysts from StoneX note that the report had no major surprises, emphasizing that while milk production remains somewhat subdued, milk components remain robust. HighGround Dairy (HGD) expresses a cautious outlook, suggesting that growth in the dairy sector will stem from improved productivity rather than an increase in herd size. With the smallest herd in over four years and low heifer inventories, the forecast for 2024 does not anticipate significant growth in cow numbers.
The report also highlights signs of financial strain on U.S. dairy farms, indicating a lack of growth in the cow herd and a potential disincentive to reverse this trend. Despite adequate supplies of fresh milk, the industry is grappling with challenges that may impact its trajectory in the coming months.
