U.S. Dairy Exports Decline 2% in October, Hit by Weakness in Southeast Asia
Source: DairyNews.today
U.S. dairy exports dipped 2% year-over-year in October, measured in milk solids equivalent (MSE), as falling shipments of milk powder and low-protein whey overshadowed strong gains in cheese exports, according to the U.S. Dairy Export Council (USDEC).
Despite the monthly decline, year-to-date (YTD) export volume through October remained slightly positive, up 0.6%. However, October marked the lowest MSE volume since January, highlighting challenges for U.S. dairy suppliers, particularly in Southeast Asia.
Commodity Prices Support Export Values
While export volumes slipped, the value of U.S. dairy exports climbed 11% in October to $695.7 million, driven by high global commodity prices and robust sales of higher-value products like cheese and high-protein whey (WPC80+). This rebound in export value follows a 5% decline in the first half of 2024, with gains of 9% recorded between July and October. Year-to-date export value reached $6.92 billion, a modest 1% increase from the same period in 2023.
Cheese Leads the Charge
Cheese exports remained a bright spot, surging 12% year-over-year (+4,455 metric tons) to 40,283 metric tons in October. This marked the seventh month in 2024 that cheese shipments exceeded the 40,000-metric-ton threshold, a milestone previously achieved only four times in a single year.
Mexico was a standout, with cheese exports rising 27% (+3,693 metric tons), alongside significant gains in other markets:
South Korea (+36%, +1,220 metric tons)
Australia (+67%, +955 metric tons)
Central America (+22%, +823 metric tons)
High-Protein Whey Rebounds
High-protein whey exports (WPC80+) recovered from a rare 1% year-over-year decline in September, jumping 25% (+2,153 metric tons) in October. The swift rebound may signal a temporary fluctuation, though market resistance to rising prices and potential misclassification issues involving low-protein whey shipments to China remain concerns.
Southeast Asia Pressures Milk Powder and Whey
Southeast Asia, a key market for U.S. dairy exports, experienced steep declines in October. U.S. exports of nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder (NFDM/SMP) to the region fell 31% (-6,117 metric tons) year-over-year, driving a 4% overall drop (-2,808 metric tons) for the product globally. Similarly, low-protein whey exports to Southeast Asia fell 19% (-2,406 metric tons), contributing to a 12% global decline (-5,499 metric tons) for the category.
This weak performance comes in sharp contrast to the first three quarters of 2024, during which NFDM/SMP shipments to Southeast Asia were up 1%, and low-protein whey volumes had surged 20%, approaching record levels.
U.S. dairy exporters face a mixed outlook, with strong momentum in high-value products like cheese and high-protein whey offset by price competition and soft demand for lower-protein items in key markets. Southeast Asia’s performance will remain a critical factor in shaping overall export trends as 2024 nears its close.
Commodity Prices Support Export Values
While export volumes slipped, the value of U.S. dairy exports climbed 11% in October to $695.7 million, driven by high global commodity prices and robust sales of higher-value products like cheese and high-protein whey (WPC80+). This rebound in export value follows a 5% decline in the first half of 2024, with gains of 9% recorded between July and October. Year-to-date export value reached $6.92 billion, a modest 1% increase from the same period in 2023.
Cheese Leads the Charge
Cheese exports remained a bright spot, surging 12% year-over-year (+4,455 metric tons) to 40,283 metric tons in October. This marked the seventh month in 2024 that cheese shipments exceeded the 40,000-metric-ton threshold, a milestone previously achieved only four times in a single year.
Mexico was a standout, with cheese exports rising 27% (+3,693 metric tons), alongside significant gains in other markets:
South Korea (+36%, +1,220 metric tons)
Australia (+67%, +955 metric tons)
Central America (+22%, +823 metric tons)
High-Protein Whey Rebounds
High-protein whey exports (WPC80+) recovered from a rare 1% year-over-year decline in September, jumping 25% (+2,153 metric tons) in October. The swift rebound may signal a temporary fluctuation, though market resistance to rising prices and potential misclassification issues involving low-protein whey shipments to China remain concerns.
Southeast Asia Pressures Milk Powder and Whey
Southeast Asia, a key market for U.S. dairy exports, experienced steep declines in October. U.S. exports of nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder (NFDM/SMP) to the region fell 31% (-6,117 metric tons) year-over-year, driving a 4% overall drop (-2,808 metric tons) for the product globally. Similarly, low-protein whey exports to Southeast Asia fell 19% (-2,406 metric tons), contributing to a 12% global decline (-5,499 metric tons) for the category.
This weak performance comes in sharp contrast to the first three quarters of 2024, during which NFDM/SMP shipments to Southeast Asia were up 1%, and low-protein whey volumes had surged 20%, approaching record levels.
U.S. dairy exporters face a mixed outlook, with strong momentum in high-value products like cheese and high-protein whey offset by price competition and soft demand for lower-protein items in key markets. Southeast Asia’s performance will remain a critical factor in shaping overall export trends as 2024 nears its close.
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