Russia's Commodity Milk Production to Remain Stable in 2025

Soyuzmoloko has developed two scenarios for the industry's development, both predicting the retention of commodity milk production at the 2024 level. The scenarios differ in price dynamics and import volumes:

Scenario 1: Retail price increases compensate for rising production costs. Imports: 7.5 million tons (+7.5% compared to 2024).

Scenario 2: Price growth is below the inflation rate. Imports: 8 million tons (+14% compared to 2024).

Exports in both scenarios are forecast at 1.1 million tons, the same as in 2024.

By 2030, Soyuzmoloko projects an increase in commodity milk production to 31.3 million tons (+19% compared to 2024), which will increase the country's self-sufficiency in milk to 88.2% (with a target indicator of 90% according to the food security doctrine). A decrease in imports of 18%, to 5.8 million tons, and an increase in exports of 44%, to 1.5 million tons, is expected.