Ice Cream Production in Russia Slightly Decreased as Prices Continue to Rise
Sourse: milknews.ru
In the first eight months of 2025, the Russian ice cream market showed a slight decline in production volumes, despite several positive developments at the beginning of the year. Experts attribute this to a combination of negative factors, including high interest rates, rising wholesale prices, cool spring-summer weather, and significant inventory levels.
According to revised data from Rosstat, ice cream production from January to August 2025 amounted to 454.5 thousand tons, which is 0.4% less than the same period in 2024 (456.3 thousand tons). The beginning of the year was marked by growth: in January, it was 1.9%, and in February, it reached 9.1%. However, in spring, the trend reversed: production fell by 2.5% in March and by 3.9% in April. The summer season also showed mixed dynamics: after growth in May (2.2%) and June (4.5%), July and August ended with declines of 5.4% and 5.1%, respectively.
There is a redistribution of production capacities across federal districts. The historical leader, the Central Federal District (CFD), reduced output by 7.2%. At the same time, the Northwestern Federal District (NWFD) showed a record production increase of 57.5%, explained by the transfer of part of the "Iceberry" company's capacities from Tutayev (CFD) to Vologda (NWFD). The Southern Federal District (SFD), which previously led in growth rates, reduced its indicators by 3%. Other districts also showed predominantly negative dynamics.
Meanwhile, ice cream prices continue to rise. From January to August 2025, manufacturers increased wholesale prices by 16.9%, and retail chains by 17%. According to Dmitry Dokin, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the "Shin-Line" company, retailers passed the entire growth of factory prices onto consumers. By August 2025, the average retail price per kilogram of ice cream reached 894 rubles, significantly higher than in 2024.
The main drivers of price growth were:
"The market is accustomed to raw material inflation and quickly adapts to the new retail price realities," noted Dmitry Dokin.
There is a redistribution of production capacities across federal districts. The historical leader, the Central Federal District (CFD), reduced output by 7.2%. At the same time, the Northwestern Federal District (NWFD) showed a record production increase of 57.5%, explained by the transfer of part of the "Iceberry" company's capacities from Tutayev (CFD) to Vologda (NWFD). The Southern Federal District (SFD), which previously led in growth rates, reduced its indicators by 3%. Other districts also showed predominantly negative dynamics.
Meanwhile, ice cream prices continue to rise. From January to August 2025, manufacturers increased wholesale prices by 16.9%, and retail chains by 17%. According to Dmitry Dokin, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the "Shin-Line" company, retailers passed the entire growth of factory prices onto consumers. By August 2025, the average retail price per kilogram of ice cream reached 894 rubles, significantly higher than in 2024.
The main drivers of price growth were:
- Price volatility of dairy raw materials (butter, skimmed milk powder).
- The increased cost of chocolate and glaze due to rising cocoa bean prices.
- Rising costs of fruit fillers due to import logistics challenges.
- Overall increase in costs for wages, logistics, and packaging.
"The market is accustomed to raw material inflation and quickly adapts to the new retail price realities," noted Dmitry Dokin.
