Mexico's Retail Sector Faces Economic Uncertainty Amid U.S. Trade and Deportation Threats
Tariffs on Imports and Rising Costs
The U.S. administration's proposal of a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, coupled with a 10% tariff on Chinese products, poses a significant threat to Mexican consumers and businesses. Essential agricultural goods, including corn, soy, pork, and dairy products, are among the most vulnerable to price hikes.
Rivera emphasized the potential burden on Mexican households, where increased costs for staples could further strain already tight budgets. “These tariffs will undoubtedly disrupt Mexico’s supply chain, with small merchants and consumers bearing the brunt,” he stated.
Impact on Remittances and Employment
Another major concern is the potential disruption of remittances from Mexican migrants in the U.S., which exceeded $60 billion in 2024. These funds support nearly two million Mexican households, contributing significantly to local commerce. Mass deportations, as threatened by the Trump administration, could severely curtail this critical financial lifeline.
Rivera also highlighted the potential strain on Mexico’s labor market. With 26.9 million people employed formally and 32 million informally, an influx of deportees could exacerbate unemployment and underemployment.
Security and Small Business Risks
Security concerns loom large as well, with the U.S. administration’s plan to designate Mexican cartels as terrorist organizations. Rivera warned that such measures could lead to heightened violence, impacting small businesses that already face challenges such as theft, extortion, and declining consumer spending.
ANPEC’s Call to Action
In response to these looming threats, ANPEC is urging vigilance and unity among Mexican merchants to protect the country’s commercial interests. “We must organize to confront these challenges and advocate for policies that safeguard Mexico’s economy and trade,” Rivera stated.
Outlook
As Mexico braces for potential disruptions to trade, remittances, and employment, small businesses remain on the front lines of the economic battle. ANPEC’s warning underscores the need for proactive measures to mitigate the impact of U.S. policies on the livelihoods of millions of Mexicans.
With international trade relations hanging in the balance, the coming months will test Mexico’s resilience in the face of economic and political headwinds.
