Cafés Fuel Demand: UHT Milk Production in Russia to Increase by 5%

According to Andrey Dalnov, chief analyst at Rosselkhozbank, the greatest contribution to growth will be made by enterprises in Central Russia (37%, or over 600 thousand tons) and the Volga region (26%, or 420 thousand tons). Siberia will produce about 170 thousand tons (10%), while the remaining regions will account for 3% to 8%.

According to 'Soyuzmoloko', in January–July 2025, the output of UHT milk increased by 3.5%, reaching 933 thousand tons, which is above the average market growth rate in the drinking milk category (+0.9%).

The main reason for the growth is the demand for UHT milk in the HoReCa segment. 'For cafés, it's convenient due to its long shelf life at room temperature. This reduces costs and allows for standardized recipes,' notes Dalnov.

According to 'Check Index', the number of take-away coffee purchases increased by 11% in January–July, and the median price for a serving (200–400 ml) rose by 12% to 197 rubles. In the 'Shokoladnitsa' chain, the share of coffee sales with milk in 2025 amounted to 43%.

The growth in coffee machine sales also boosts demand: according to 'M.Video-Eldorado Group', their sales grew by 11% year-on-year in the first half of the year.

Meanwhile, retail sales of UHT milk are decreasing. According to Nielsen, from August 2024 to July 2025, sales volume dropped by 10.8%. Currently, this category accounts for only 4% of all dairy product sales. For comparison, pasteurized milk saw a decline of only 0.7% (share — 15.6%).

According to Artem Belov, CEO of 'Soyuzmoloko', the decline is related to pricing: UHT milk is on average 20% more expensive than regular milk.