Idaho's Dairy Industry Braces for Potential Impacts of Proposed Mass Deportations
Source: DairyNews.today
As the Republican National Convention highlighted plans for a possible second Trump administration to enact the “largest deportation in history,” Idaho’s dairy industry could face substantial disruption. Former President Donald Trump has indicated that, if reelected, he would deport up to 20 million undocumented immigrants — a move that economists and industry experts warn would reverberate deeply within Idaho's dairy sector.
Idaho’s dairy industry, heavily reliant on foreign-born workers, employs nearly 4,400 on-site workers, with nearly 90% estimated to be foreign-born, according to the Idaho Dairymen’s Association. Phil Watson, an economist at the University of Idaho, said that even a partial reduction of this labor force would deliver a blow to Idaho’s economy and dairy productivity, which has already been affected by stagnant milk prices and labor shortages. A University of Idaho study indicates that foreign-born labor fills jobs that are often low-paying and undesirable to American-born workers.
“Businesses employ unauthorized workers because they can’t find enough authorized labor for the work,” Watson said, citing findings fr om the University of Idaho’s McClure Center for Public Policy Research. Without these workers, Idaho’s dairy operations may cut production, forgo growth opportunities, or, in extreme cases, face closures.
A Stable but Vulnerable Labor Force
Despite a stable undocumented population of around 35,000 in Idaho fr om 2005 to 2021, according to the University of Idaho, the potential deportation of dairy workers could have far-reaching consequences. Rick Naerebout, CEO of the Idaho Dairymen’s Association, estimated that unauthorized workers account for up to 30,000 jobs statewide, underscoring the industry’s reliance on this labor.
Research by Watson and his colleague Hernan Tejeda found that reducing Idaho’s foreign-born, less-educated workforce by 50% could slash the state’s GDP by over $900 million. With Idaho ranking as the third-largest dairy-producing state, any labor shortfall would impact not only local milk production but also national supply.
Economic Risks and Industry Warnings
Industry leaders warn that a shortage of workers would strain dairy operations’ ability to maintain productivity. Pete Wiersma, President of the Idaho Dairymen’s Association, expressed skepticism about meeting demand without foreign-born labor. “If we lose these workers, I don’t think we could keep production going,” Wiersma said. While Watson deemed Wiersma’s claim "bombastic," he agreed Idaho's dairy industry would face considerable strain, as dairy cows require daily milking and a delay in this process could affect both cow health and milk output.
The ripple effects of potential deportations could also hit rural economies and related sectors. Watson pointed out that dairy operations fuel local economies indirectly, with employees spending on goods and services within their communities. “There’s a lot of jobs that, without realizing it, are connected to dairy,” he said. "The impact would be particularly stark in rural areas wh ere dairy farms are concentrated."
Industry Appeals for Immigration Reform
The Idaho dairy sector has long advocated for immigration reform to ensure a stable workforce. The Idaho Farm Bureau Federation supports legal status for current agricultural workers and expanded visa options for year-round employment. Current U.S. guest-worker visas, including the H-2A program, do not cover year-round agricultural needs, limiting Idaho dairies’ access to legal labor.
“This is a critical issue for agriculture, not just for dairy,” Naerebout said, pointing to estimates that half of the agricultural workforce nationwide is unauthorized. He called for federal policy changes that would align with the industry’s ongoing workforce needs.
As deportation policies loom, Idaho’s dairy industry and broader agricultural sector are facing uncertainty. “The consequences extend beyond dairy farms,” Watson noted. “For a state like Idaho, wh ere agriculture is central to the economy, the stakes couldn’t be higher.”
“Businesses employ unauthorized workers because they can’t find enough authorized labor for the work,” Watson said, citing findings fr om the University of Idaho’s McClure Center for Public Policy Research. Without these workers, Idaho’s dairy operations may cut production, forgo growth opportunities, or, in extreme cases, face closures.
A Stable but Vulnerable Labor Force
Despite a stable undocumented population of around 35,000 in Idaho fr om 2005 to 2021, according to the University of Idaho, the potential deportation of dairy workers could have far-reaching consequences. Rick Naerebout, CEO of the Idaho Dairymen’s Association, estimated that unauthorized workers account for up to 30,000 jobs statewide, underscoring the industry’s reliance on this labor.
Research by Watson and his colleague Hernan Tejeda found that reducing Idaho’s foreign-born, less-educated workforce by 50% could slash the state’s GDP by over $900 million. With Idaho ranking as the third-largest dairy-producing state, any labor shortfall would impact not only local milk production but also national supply.
Economic Risks and Industry Warnings
Industry leaders warn that a shortage of workers would strain dairy operations’ ability to maintain productivity. Pete Wiersma, President of the Idaho Dairymen’s Association, expressed skepticism about meeting demand without foreign-born labor. “If we lose these workers, I don’t think we could keep production going,” Wiersma said. While Watson deemed Wiersma’s claim "bombastic," he agreed Idaho's dairy industry would face considerable strain, as dairy cows require daily milking and a delay in this process could affect both cow health and milk output.
The ripple effects of potential deportations could also hit rural economies and related sectors. Watson pointed out that dairy operations fuel local economies indirectly, with employees spending on goods and services within their communities. “There’s a lot of jobs that, without realizing it, are connected to dairy,” he said. "The impact would be particularly stark in rural areas wh ere dairy farms are concentrated."
Industry Appeals for Immigration Reform
The Idaho dairy sector has long advocated for immigration reform to ensure a stable workforce. The Idaho Farm Bureau Federation supports legal status for current agricultural workers and expanded visa options for year-round employment. Current U.S. guest-worker visas, including the H-2A program, do not cover year-round agricultural needs, limiting Idaho dairies’ access to legal labor.
“This is a critical issue for agriculture, not just for dairy,” Naerebout said, pointing to estimates that half of the agricultural workforce nationwide is unauthorized. He called for federal policy changes that would align with the industry’s ongoing workforce needs.
As deportation policies loom, Idaho’s dairy industry and broader agricultural sector are facing uncertainty. “The consequences extend beyond dairy farms,” Watson noted. “For a state like Idaho, wh ere agriculture is central to the economy, the stakes couldn’t be higher.”
