El Niño to La Niña Transition Fuels Extreme Weather and Planting Delays This Spring
Source: The DairyNews
The rapid transition from El Niño to La Niña has been a significant factor behind the recent surge in extreme weather and planting delays across the U.S. Since late April, tornado outbreaks and heavy rainfall have created challenging conditions for farmers and residents alike.
The National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) reports that El Niño is transitioning to a neutral state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with a likely shift to La Niña by mid-summer. Forecasters predict a 49% chance of La Niña developing between June and August, increasing to 69% between July and September.
This transition has contributed to a particularly active severe weather period in April and May, including approximately 380 tornadoes in the U.S. during April alone. This ranks as the second-highest number of April tornadoes since records began in 1950, surpassed only by the historic April of 2011, which saw over 800 tornadoes.
According to Brad Rippey, USDA Meteorologist, the combination of cold air masses from Canada, warm and humid air, and atmospheric twists has created ideal conditions for severe weather. Drew Lerner, founder and president of World Weather Inc., adds that the rapid shift from El Niño to La Niña has further destabilized the atmosphere, contributing to the extreme weather.
In addition to tornadoes, relentless rains have caused significant flooding and planting delays. Parts of Texas experienced up to 9 inches of rain in a six to eight-hour span, exacerbating the situation. As of last Sunday, only 36% of the country's corn crop was planted, trailing the five-year average by three points. States like Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa are all behind schedule.
Despite these setbacks, experts predict a change in the weather pattern in the coming weeks. Lerner anticipates a reduction in extreme rainfall, allowing for more consistent planting windows. Rippey echoes this optimism, noting that unlike previous years with prolonged wet conditions, 2024 should see more opportunities for fields to dry out and planting to resume.
However, the anticipated warmth and switch to La Niña could worsen drought conditions in certain areas. Currently, 15% of the U.S. faces drought, with severe conditions in parts of the Northwest and Southwest. South central Kansas, Colorado, New Mexico, and parts of Texas continue to struggle with drought, and forecasts suggest these dry patterns could persist through the summer and beyond.
As farmers navigate these challenges, the agricultural community remains hopeful for improved conditions in the coming months, allowing them to catch up on planting and mitigate the impacts of this tumultuous spring.
This transition has contributed to a particularly active severe weather period in April and May, including approximately 380 tornadoes in the U.S. during April alone. This ranks as the second-highest number of April tornadoes since records began in 1950, surpassed only by the historic April of 2011, which saw over 800 tornadoes.
According to Brad Rippey, USDA Meteorologist, the combination of cold air masses from Canada, warm and humid air, and atmospheric twists has created ideal conditions for severe weather. Drew Lerner, founder and president of World Weather Inc., adds that the rapid shift from El Niño to La Niña has further destabilized the atmosphere, contributing to the extreme weather.
In addition to tornadoes, relentless rains have caused significant flooding and planting delays. Parts of Texas experienced up to 9 inches of rain in a six to eight-hour span, exacerbating the situation. As of last Sunday, only 36% of the country's corn crop was planted, trailing the five-year average by three points. States like Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa are all behind schedule.
Despite these setbacks, experts predict a change in the weather pattern in the coming weeks. Lerner anticipates a reduction in extreme rainfall, allowing for more consistent planting windows. Rippey echoes this optimism, noting that unlike previous years with prolonged wet conditions, 2024 should see more opportunities for fields to dry out and planting to resume.
However, the anticipated warmth and switch to La Niña could worsen drought conditions in certain areas. Currently, 15% of the U.S. faces drought, with severe conditions in parts of the Northwest and Southwest. South central Kansas, Colorado, New Mexico, and parts of Texas continue to struggle with drought, and forecasts suggest these dry patterns could persist through the summer and beyond.
As farmers navigate these challenges, the agricultural community remains hopeful for improved conditions in the coming months, allowing them to catch up on planting and mitigate the impacts of this tumultuous spring.
