Dairy Industry Resilient Amid Bird Flu Outbreaks, Experts Cautiously Optimistic

Despite initial concerns, both consumers and the dairy industry have not observed significant changes in milk availability or market stability. Outbreaks of avian influenza have been contained to a degree, sparing the broader economy from major disruptions, according to dairy market analysts and industry groups.

As of now, 160 cow herds in 13 U.S. states have tested positive for bird flu, based on data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. This is a small fraction of the 24,094 dairy farms nationwide, as per the 2022 U.S. Census of Agriculture.

“Fortunately for both the industry and consumers, we haven't seen major impacts yet,” said Chuck Nicholson, an agricultural economics professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. “While the future remains uncertain due to the unpredictable nature of epidemiological events, we hope the situation remains under control.”

Since the first confirmed cases in late March, milk prices have held steady and are expected to increase gradually. Current data does not suggest significant consumer behavior changes due to the bird flu, said Alan Bjerga, a spokesperson for the National Milk Producers Federation. “If a panic were to occur, it likely would have already happened,” he added.

As of the latest USDA data, the industry price of milk stood at $22 per 100 pounds. However, if avian flu spreads more widely, both consumers and the dairy industry could see noticeable impacts. When cows test positive, their milk is withheld from the market temporarily, and sick cows may produce substandard milk. Although most cows recover within 30 days, their milk production may take longer to normalize, explained Mark Ernst, Illinois' State Veterinarian.

Even a minor decrease in milk production can lead to price increases, which could be passed on to consumers. The USDA has introduced measures to support affected farmers, offering compensation for lost milk value, similar to crop insurance.

To mitigate further spread, states like Iowa and Michigan have implemented more stringent testing requirements. In Illinois, testing for lactating dairy cattle at exhibitions has been mandated.

While the poultry industry faced severe losses from avian influenza, the dairy industry has been less affected. “This has not been detrimental to the dairy industry like the poultry industry experienced,” said Tasha Bunting, executive director of the Illinois Milk Producers.

The dairy industry is proactively communicating to reassure customers of the safety of milk products, emphasizing the rigorous pasteurization process. Maintaining consumer confidence is crucial, especially as per capita milk consumption in the U.S. has been on a long-term decline, from 33.4 gallons per year in 1945 to 15.6 gallons in 2021, according to USDA data.

As the situation evolves, industry stakeholders remain vigilant, with experts like Chuck Nicholson advising to stay informed as developments unfold.