China’s Milk Oversupply to Persist in Early 2025, Stabilization Expected Later in Year
China’s milk supply is expected to remain in surplus through the first half of 2025, with production pressures gradually easing in the latter half of the year, according to the country’s agriculture ministry.
The world’s third-largest milk producer is currently grappling with an oversupply of milk, driven by factors such as a decline in birth rates and reduced consumer demand due to cost-consciousness. These challenges have led to a squeeze on shipments and forced many smaller farmers out of business.
In September, Beijing issued guidelines aimed at curbing dairy output, encouraging farmers to optimize herd structures by culling older and less productive cows, while also boosting consumption. The ministry stated that efforts to adjust and optimize the number of dairy cows are helping to stabilize overall milk production.
“Dairy production has remained stable, and the number of cows has been gradually adjusted,” the statement said. “While the oversupply of milk will continue in the first half of 2025, it is expected that supply and demand imbalances will ease in the second half of the year.”
Despite the current challenges, the agriculture ministry expressed confidence that there is still potential for growth in milk consumption in the future.
In September, Beijing issued guidelines aimed at curbing dairy output, encouraging farmers to optimize herd structures by culling older and less productive cows, while also boosting consumption. The ministry stated that efforts to adjust and optimize the number of dairy cows are helping to stabilize overall milk production.
“Dairy production has remained stable, and the number of cows has been gradually adjusted,” the statement said. “While the oversupply of milk will continue in the first half of 2025, it is expected that supply and demand imbalances will ease in the second half of the year.”
Milk production for the first 11 months of 2024 totaled 26.95 million tons, marking a 2.4% year-on-year decline. In contrast, 2023 saw an increase in output to nearly 42 million tons, surpassing the 2025 target of 41 million tons, amid weakening demand for higher-priced dairy products such as cheese, cream, and butter.
Despite the current challenges, the agriculture ministry expressed confidence that there is still potential for growth in milk consumption in the future.
