Bad Weather and Prices "Froze" the Ice Cream Market: Sales in Russia Dropped by 10%

Data from the cash register software developer "Evotor" indicates an 11% reduction in ice cream sales in physical terms from January to June 2025 compared to the same period last year. The "Supermarkets by T-Bank" service recorded a 6% decline in June, and analysts from "Check Index" (a fiscal data operator) noted a 5% drop in physical sales in the first month of summer, as well as a 23% reduction in sales of ice cream mix.

According to Stanislav Bogdanov, chairman of the presidium of the Association of Retail Companies, ice cream sales in retail chains fell by 10% year-on-year in June. This is in stark contrast to last year's figures, when hot weather contributed to double-digit growth rates. However, over a longer period (May 2024 – April 2025), physical sales increased by 2.4%, and in monetary terms — by 17.5%.

Experts link the current demand reduction to two key factors:

• Climatic factor: Prolonged rains and a cool spring in central Russia, according to "Check Index" analysts and Maria Zhebit, deputy general director of "Soyuzmoloko", directly influenced consumption.
• Price factor: The rise in production costs, driven by the increased cost of raw materials and ingredients (chocolate, glaze, dairy fats, fruit fillers), led to a 12–23% increase in ice cream prices over the year. For example, cocoa bean prices more than doubled.

The unfavorable market environment is already affecting production. According to "Soyuzmoloko", while ice cream production increased by 2.1% to 125 thousand tons in January-March 2025, due to low production in April, the figure for the first four months decreased by 3% year-on-year.

"Evotor" also notes that high prices may encourage consumers to choose more budget-friendly options or completely abandon purchases, posing a challenge for manufacturers to find a balance between maintaining quality and product affordability.