Thanksgiving Dinner Costs Drop Again
Source: DairyNews.today
For the second consecutive year, Americans preparing for Thanksgiving dinner will see a decline in grocery bills, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation’s (AFBF) annual survey. The cost of a classic feast for 10 is down 5% from 2023, totaling $58.08, though it remains 19% higher than five years ago.
While shoppers may find some relief at the checkout counter, the numbers underscore persistent challenges for farmers and ranchers balancing lower revenues with rising costs.
Thanksgiving Costs: A Mixed Basket
The AFBF survey, now in its 39th year, tracks the prices of Thanksgiving staples like turkey, stuffing, and pie ingredients across all 50 states and Puerto Rico. This year’s basket is a mix of savings and increases.
Seven items, including turkey, sweet potatoes, frozen peas, and whole milk, saw price drops. Meanwhile, four items—dinner rolls, cranberries, whipping cream, and stuffing—rose in cost. For those adding holiday extras like ham, Russet potatoes, and green beans, the expanded meal totals $77.34, reflecting a sharper 8.7% price decrease compared to last year.
Turkey Prices Defy Expectations
Turkey, the centerpiece of most Thanksgiving meals, has historically accounted for about 43% of the total dinner cost. This year, a 16-pound turkey represents 44.2% of the average grocery bill, and its price dropped by 6%.
The decline comes despite a 6% reduction in turkey production in 2024, the lowest output since 1985, largely due to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza outbreaks. Normally, decreased supply would push prices higher, but consumer demand for turkey has also fallen. USDA data shows per capita consumption dropped by a pound from 2023 to 2024, contributing to the price drop.
Regional Differences in Costs
Thanksgiving dinner costs vary significantly across the U.S., with Western households paying the most at $67.81 for the classic meal, a 15% premium over other regions. In contrast, Southern shoppers enjoy the lowest costs at $56.81, with the Northeast and Midwest close behind. For expanded meal options, regional disparities persist, with Western households spending over $94 compared to $81-$83 elsewhere.
Consumers Benefit as Farmers Shoulder Challenges
Although food prices have stabilized relative to broader inflation, farmers face declining revenues and rising input costs. The USDA projects a $6.5 billion drop in national net farm income for 2024, squeezing farm families already burdened by volatile markets and adverse weather events.
Farmers, who earn an average of 9.3 cents for every dollar spent on food, are price takers in the supply chain, absorbing much of the volatility to ensure stable grocery prices. Processed goods like stuffing and dinner rolls, which saw some of the largest price increases, highlight how nonfood inflation and labor shortages ripple through the supply chain.
Policy and Support for Farmers
The current farm bill, a cornerstone of U.S. agricultural policy, expired this fall, leaving farmers without updated protections as they grapple with volatile markets. Disaster relief efforts, critical for recovery from hurricanes and other disruptions, have also faced delays and limitations. Timely legislative support is crucial to maintaining a resilient and affordable food supply.
The Long Road to Recovery
Despite the 5% drop in Thanksgiving meal costs, prices remain elevated compared to pre-inflation levels. Food inflation rose just 1.1% over the past year, a fraction of broader economic increases in housing, transportation, and electricity. Adjusted for inflation, this year’s Thanksgiving meal is among the most affordable in the survey’s history, second only to the 2020 pandemic anomaly.
American households also benefit from rising wages, which grew 4% from 2023 to 2024, reducing the hours of work required to afford Thanksgiving dinner by 9%.
Conclusion
The 2024 Thanksgiving meal offers a modest reprieve for consumers, with costs down from last year but still reflective of broader economic pressures. Behind the scenes, farmers continue to face a challenging landscape marked by falling revenues, higher production costs, and policy uncertainties. As Americans gather for the holiday, the affordability of the feast is a testament to the resilience of the nation’s farmers, who shoulder much of the burden to keep food on the table.
Thanksgiving Costs: A Mixed Basket
The AFBF survey, now in its 39th year, tracks the prices of Thanksgiving staples like turkey, stuffing, and pie ingredients across all 50 states and Puerto Rico. This year’s basket is a mix of savings and increases.
Seven items, including turkey, sweet potatoes, frozen peas, and whole milk, saw price drops. Meanwhile, four items—dinner rolls, cranberries, whipping cream, and stuffing—rose in cost. For those adding holiday extras like ham, Russet potatoes, and green beans, the expanded meal totals $77.34, reflecting a sharper 8.7% price decrease compared to last year.
Turkey Prices Defy Expectations
Turkey, the centerpiece of most Thanksgiving meals, has historically accounted for about 43% of the total dinner cost. This year, a 16-pound turkey represents 44.2% of the average grocery bill, and its price dropped by 6%.
The decline comes despite a 6% reduction in turkey production in 2024, the lowest output since 1985, largely due to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza outbreaks. Normally, decreased supply would push prices higher, but consumer demand for turkey has also fallen. USDA data shows per capita consumption dropped by a pound from 2023 to 2024, contributing to the price drop.
Regional Differences in Costs
Thanksgiving dinner costs vary significantly across the U.S., with Western households paying the most at $67.81 for the classic meal, a 15% premium over other regions. In contrast, Southern shoppers enjoy the lowest costs at $56.81, with the Northeast and Midwest close behind. For expanded meal options, regional disparities persist, with Western households spending over $94 compared to $81-$83 elsewhere.
Consumers Benefit as Farmers Shoulder Challenges
Although food prices have stabilized relative to broader inflation, farmers face declining revenues and rising input costs. The USDA projects a $6.5 billion drop in national net farm income for 2024, squeezing farm families already burdened by volatile markets and adverse weather events.
Farmers, who earn an average of 9.3 cents for every dollar spent on food, are price takers in the supply chain, absorbing much of the volatility to ensure stable grocery prices. Processed goods like stuffing and dinner rolls, which saw some of the largest price increases, highlight how nonfood inflation and labor shortages ripple through the supply chain.
Policy and Support for Farmers
The current farm bill, a cornerstone of U.S. agricultural policy, expired this fall, leaving farmers without updated protections as they grapple with volatile markets. Disaster relief efforts, critical for recovery from hurricanes and other disruptions, have also faced delays and limitations. Timely legislative support is crucial to maintaining a resilient and affordable food supply.
The Long Road to Recovery
Despite the 5% drop in Thanksgiving meal costs, prices remain elevated compared to pre-inflation levels. Food inflation rose just 1.1% over the past year, a fraction of broader economic increases in housing, transportation, and electricity. Adjusted for inflation, this year’s Thanksgiving meal is among the most affordable in the survey’s history, second only to the 2020 pandemic anomaly.
American households also benefit from rising wages, which grew 4% from 2023 to 2024, reducing the hours of work required to afford Thanksgiving dinner by 9%.
Conclusion
The 2024 Thanksgiving meal offers a modest reprieve for consumers, with costs down from last year but still reflective of broader economic pressures. Behind the scenes, farmers continue to face a challenging landscape marked by falling revenues, higher production costs, and policy uncertainties. As Americans gather for the holiday, the affordability of the feast is a testament to the resilience of the nation’s farmers, who shoulder much of the burden to keep food on the table.
