Rethinking Global Milk Production Figures: A Critical Perspective

In my view, the situation with milk production in India, Pakistan, as well as in Asia, Southeast Asia, and the post-Soviet region is largely overstated. The main issue is that a significant share of reported volumes — anywhere fr om 20 to 50% — comes fr om the informal sector, which cannot be measured accurately.

An indirect confirmation of this is the fact that India, despite its declared record production volumes, exports virtually nothing. Moreover, the country even imports dairy products from other markets.

Against this backdrop, the situation in developed countries looks far more transparent. In the European Union, we see a decline in production; in the United States, steady growth; while in New Zealand, the dynamics are mixed. On one hand, production is rising, but on the other, there are clear marketing challenges. This is largely because a significant portion of New Zealand’s milk is shipped to China, wh ere oversupply has already formed, reducing the appetite for further imports.

The key difference lies in marketability. In developed countries, this indicator exceeds 90% and in some cases reaches 100%. Such statistics can be trusted. Meanwhile, in countries wh ere marketability remains around 50% or slightly higher, the reported data raises serious doubts.

Therefore, in my opinion, while India’s dairy industry is indeed growing and producing substantial volumes, the officially declared figures are clearly inflated and in reality may be significantly lower.