WASDE Report Maintains Soybean Oil Biofuel Use Forecast for 2024-2025
Source: DairyNews.today
In its latest "World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates" (WASDE) report released on August 12, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has upheld its forecast for soybean oil use in biofuel production for the 2024-2025 period. The report also includes an upward revision in soybean production projections.
Soybean Production Outlook for 2024-2025
The USDA has increased its forecast for U.S. soybean production for the 2024-2025 period to 4.6 billion bushels, marking a 154 million bushel rise due to expanded acreage and improved yields. The harvested area is expected to reach 86.3 million acres, an increase of 1 million acres from the previous month. The yield forecast stands at 53.2 bushels per acre, up by 1.2 bushels from July’s estimate.
Total soybean supplies for the 2024-2025 period are projected at 4.9 billion bushels, an 11% increase from the previous year. With a 25-million-bushel increase in soybean exports, ending stocks are forecast to be 560 million bushels, an increase of 125 million bushels from last month.
Soybean Oil and Biofuel Production
The USDA has maintained its forecast for soybean oil usage in biofuel production at 14 billion pounds for 2024-2025. For the current 2023-2024 period, it is estimated that 12.9 billion pounds of soybean oil will be utilized for biofuels, up from 12.491 billion pounds in 2022-2023.
Price Projections
The forecast average seasonal price for U.S. soybeans in 2024-2025 is $10.80 per bushel, a decrease of 30 cents from the previous forecast. Soybean meal prices are projected to be $320 per short ton, down by $10, while soybean oil prices are expected to be 42 cents per pound.
Global Oilseed Production
Global oilseed production for 2024-2025 has been revised upwards by 4.5 million tons to 690.5 million tons, driven by increased production of soybeans and rapeseed. This rise is partially offset by decreased production of sunflower seeds, cottonseed, peanuts, and palm kernel. Global soybean production is forecast to reach 428.7 million tons, an increase of 6.9 million tons, with notable gains in the U.S., Ukraine, Russia, India, and Benin. Adjustments in foreign production estimates reflect higher acreage based on updated government reports. Global soybean exports have been raised by 1 million tons to 181.2 million tons, supported by increased shipments from the U.S., Ukraine, Russia, and Benin, though partially offset by reduced exports from Argentina. Soybean import forecasts have been increased for Egypt, the EU, Iran, and Turkey.
Global Ending Stocks
Global soybean ending stocks for 2024-2025 are forecast to rise by 6.5 million tons to 134.3 million tons. This increase is primarily due to higher stock levels in China, the U.S., and Argentina, partially offset by reduced stocks in Brazil. The upward revision for China and Brazil reflects changes in trade dynamics for 2023-2024. China’s imports have been raised to 111.5 million tons, reflecting higher supplies from exporters, while Brazil’s exports have been increased to 105 million tons due to a robust shipment pace through July.
The USDA has increased its forecast for U.S. soybean production for the 2024-2025 period to 4.6 billion bushels, marking a 154 million bushel rise due to expanded acreage and improved yields. The harvested area is expected to reach 86.3 million acres, an increase of 1 million acres from the previous month. The yield forecast stands at 53.2 bushels per acre, up by 1.2 bushels from July’s estimate.
Total soybean supplies for the 2024-2025 period are projected at 4.9 billion bushels, an 11% increase from the previous year. With a 25-million-bushel increase in soybean exports, ending stocks are forecast to be 560 million bushels, an increase of 125 million bushels from last month.
Soybean Oil and Biofuel Production
The USDA has maintained its forecast for soybean oil usage in biofuel production at 14 billion pounds for 2024-2025. For the current 2023-2024 period, it is estimated that 12.9 billion pounds of soybean oil will be utilized for biofuels, up from 12.491 billion pounds in 2022-2023.
Price Projections
The forecast average seasonal price for U.S. soybeans in 2024-2025 is $10.80 per bushel, a decrease of 30 cents from the previous forecast. Soybean meal prices are projected to be $320 per short ton, down by $10, while soybean oil prices are expected to be 42 cents per pound.
Global Oilseed Production
Global oilseed production for 2024-2025 has been revised upwards by 4.5 million tons to 690.5 million tons, driven by increased production of soybeans and rapeseed. This rise is partially offset by decreased production of sunflower seeds, cottonseed, peanuts, and palm kernel. Global soybean production is forecast to reach 428.7 million tons, an increase of 6.9 million tons, with notable gains in the U.S., Ukraine, Russia, India, and Benin. Adjustments in foreign production estimates reflect higher acreage based on updated government reports. Global soybean exports have been raised by 1 million tons to 181.2 million tons, supported by increased shipments from the U.S., Ukraine, Russia, and Benin, though partially offset by reduced exports from Argentina. Soybean import forecasts have been increased for Egypt, the EU, Iran, and Turkey.
Global Ending Stocks
Global soybean ending stocks for 2024-2025 are forecast to rise by 6.5 million tons to 134.3 million tons. This increase is primarily due to higher stock levels in China, the U.S., and Argentina, partially offset by reduced stocks in Brazil. The upward revision for China and Brazil reflects changes in trade dynamics for 2023-2024. China’s imports have been raised to 111.5 million tons, reflecting higher supplies from exporters, while Brazil’s exports have been increased to 105 million tons due to a robust shipment pace through July.
