USDA Drops 2025 Milk Production Forecast; Replacement Dairy Heifers Tumble to 47-year Low
The USDA has made a substantial adjustment to its 2025 milk production forecast, citing a reduction by 400 million pounds. This decision stems from recent reports on Milk Production and Cattle Inventory, which showcased a smaller supply of dairy heifers than expected.
According to the latest data, there are now approximately 3.914 million dairy heifers weighing 500 pounds and upwards, marking the lowest count since 1978. These heifers are typically either ready to enter breeding or are already pregnant and close to entering milking barns.
World Ag Outlook Board Chair, Mark Jekanowski, highlighted notable month-over-month changes in product pricing, attributing these variations in part to the new Federal Milk Marketing Order. Among the changes, cheese prices have increased by $0.02 per pound due to tight inventories. Conversely, prices for butter, non-fat dry milk, and dry whey have seen reductions.
Despite the adjustments, all milk prices have seen a drop compared to the previous month. Analysts point to changes in class prices calculation as a contributing factor.
