Trump tariffs threaten $8.2 bn US dairy exports amid global uncertainty

President Donald Trump’s trade barriers have put US dairy exports at risk, coinciding with an industry that desperately seeks new markets for its growing output. In the previous year, the US exported approximately $8.2 billion worth of dairy products—a sum only once surpassed, per US Department of Agriculture data. However, retaliatory tariffs from major partners such as China and Canada have intensified concerns regarding future export capabilities.

"The US market could not absorb that additional production coming online, particularly if you're talking about a pullback of exports," stated Shawna Morris, National Milk Producers Federation’s executive vice president of trade policy and global affairs. The importance of foreign shipments is expected to grow for the dairy industry.

The impact is already being felt, with contract prices for dairy declining due to anticipated "sluggish sales" linked to trade uncertainties, according to Corey Geiger, CoBank's lead dairy economist. This, alongside potential port fees for Chinese-operated ships carrying dairy, intensifies the industry's challenges, potentially placing American exporters at a sharp disadvantage globally.

The situation remains complex, with companies closely watching ongoing developments and how the US administration might leverage current tensions to facilitate fairer trade practices.