Flexibility on New Zealand's Climate Targets: A Post-Election Reality Check
Before the election, the National Party was resolute in stating that neither the Zero Carbon Act nor New Zealand's international climate commitments were up for discussion.
ACT, however, campaigned ardently for the repeal of the Zero Carbon Act, although its climate spokesperson, Simon Court, refrained from specifying whether the party would make this a non-negotiable condition in coalition talks.
Winston Peters of NZ First, on the other hand, disseminated erroneous information during the campaign to downplay human contributions to climate change.
In the lead-up to the election, National's climate spokesperson, Simon Watts, emphasized that the core elements of New Zealand's climate response were not subject to negotiation: the Zero Carbon Act, which established the independent Climate Change Commission, and the government's international commitment to halve net emissions by 2030 compared to 2005 gross levels.
Nevertheless, National demonstrated a greater willingness to change two specific areas.
One of these areas is the procurement of international carbon credits to aid in achieving the 2030 target. This method is the current plan for fulfilling New Zealand's climate pledge under the Paris Agreement, as it is expected to be less costly and less detrimental to the economy than achieving the entire 2030 target domestically. Treasury has estimated the cost to range from $3 billion to $23 billion, although carbon market experts predict that it will likely be at the lower end of this range. Government officials are set to report to Cabinet on the procedures for this before Christmas.
In pre-election interviews, National balked at the potential cost of this strategy, expressing a preference for achieving the target primarily through domestic actions, without specifying how this would be accomplished or funded.
National's policy aims to allocate the majority of the Climate Emergence Response Fund to tax reductions. This fund, generated by auctioning carbon credits to New Zealand polluters, could have provided financial support for the acquisition of international credits and/or efforts to achieve additional carbon reductions in New Zealand.
NZ First is against spending money on climate measures overseas, according to its website. ACT has expressed its readiness to renege on the 2030 target, depending on the extent of emissions cuts by New Zealand's most significant trading partners, despite the fact that these targets are included in two equitable trade agreements. It will be a daunting challenge to meet the international target of halving net emissions by 2030 without exploring overseas options and implementing audacious new climate policies.
