China Drives Dairy Imports: 7.6% Increase by May

China, after experiencing two consecutive years of declining dairy imports, has shown signs of recovery. From January to May 2025, China's dairy product imports increased by 7.6%, marking a substantial uptick in international demand. In 2021, China's dairy imports accounted for approximately 20 billion liters of milk equivalents, making up close to 25% of the international market excluding intra-European Union trade. This recovery is critical as it influences global pricing dynamics.

In 2022, China's global market share dropped by 17.1%, followed by a 20.5% dip in 2023. The continued decline persisted in 2024 with an 11% reduction. These reductions had a dampening effect on international milk prices, compounded by high inventory levels from 2021's large imports, logistical challenges from COVID-19 city closures, and global economic pressures due to inflation and the Ukraine war.

China's reversal in import trends for 2025 is attributed to a 7.6% growth in the initial five months as the demand levels aim to recover to 2023 standards. Notably, China's total import value in dollars saw a 17.5% rise compared to the same period last year, with the average import price per ton increasing by 9.2%, indicating simultaneous growth in both volume and price.

The average price per liter of milk equivalent for Chinese imports in early 2025 was $1.17, a 17% increase when compared to Argentina's export average of $0.57 per liter.

China remains a dominant player, particularly in the whole milk powder import market, with over 92% sourced from New Zealand. However, changes in local production, encouraged by governmental incentives, and a subsequent reduction in demand for imported reconstituted milk challenge the broader structural appetite for foreign dairy goods.