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World 09.02.2024

USDA Forecasts Reduced 2024 Milk Production, Anticipates Market Resilience

Source: The DairyNews
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In its latest report, the USDA projects a decline in 2024 milk production, partially offset by an increase in cow inventories.
USDA Forecasts Reduced 2024 Milk Production, Anticipates Market Resilience
The estimated all-milk price for 2023 has decreased to $20.48 per hundredweight, while the forecast for 2024 sees an uptick to $20.95 per hundredweight.

On a fat basis, both domestic use and fat-basis exports show an increase, driven by anticipated growth in butter and cheese exports, positioning the United States competitively in the global market. The USDA expects a decrease in fat-based imports.

Skim-solids basis domestic use rises due to higher-than-expected disappearance in late 2023. However, skim-solids basis exports are lowered as stronger domestic demand takes precedence.

Projections for 2024 indicate higher prices for cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk (NDM), and whey, influenced by recent price strength, tighter milk supplies, and robust domestic use. The USDA also anticipates an increase in Class III and Class IV prices in 2024 based on elevated product prices.

In January, milk production reached 228.3 billion pounds, surpassing expectations by about 100 million pounds but still exceeding last year's figures by approximately two billion pounds. The USDA remains watchful of market dynamics and expects resilience in the face of these projections.
Lee Mielke
Lee Mielke
editor of the Mielke Market Weekly
27.02.2024
Dairy farm milk production continues to struggle and remained below a year ago for the seventh consecutive month.
Aaron Smith
Aaron Smith
Professor of Agricultural and Resource Economics at the University of California
20.02.2024
Every five years, the Department of Agriculture takes a census of farms, all two million of them. The most recent census occurred in 2022, and USDA released the data this week.
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