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USDA Adjusts 2023 Milk Production Projections Amidst Shifting Trends

USA 10.11.2023
Source: The DairyNews
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In its November Supply and Demand Report, the USDA has revised its projections for 2023 milk production, citing lower cow numbers and a slowdown in milk-per-cow growth during the third quarter. This trend is anticipated to persist until the end of the year.
USDA Adjusts 2023 Milk Production Projections Amidst Shifting Trends

The report indicates that 2023 fat basis imports remain unchanged, with an expectation of increased fourth-quarter butter and butter fat imports counteracting lower imports in the third quarter. However, skim solids basis import projections for 2023 have been lowered, while those for 2024 remain unchanged.

Furthermore, recent fluctuations in butter prices have impacted the forecast, with gains eroding more rapidly than initially anticipated. The cheese price remains unchanged, and the nonfat dry milk price has been adjusted to align with current market prices. The Class III price sees an increase due to a higher whey price, but the Class IV price experiences a reduction, attributed to a weaker butter price that more than offsets a slightly higher nonfat dry milk price.

Despite these adjustments, the USDA maintains the 2023 all milk price forecast at $20.70 per hundredweight, consistent with the previous month's projection. However, the 2024 all milk price is raised to $20.80 per hundredweight, indicating a modest increase in the coming year.

Dr. Sylvain Charlebois
Dr. Sylvain Charlebois
senior director of the agri-food analytics lab and a professor in food distribution and policy at Dalhousie University.
European politics are notoriously intricate, and the recent EU elections have highlighted a growing fatigue in the West towards socialist and urban-centric policies that impact agriculture and the agri-food sectors.
John Williams
John Williams
The Australian Dairy Products Federation (ADPF) Chair
This is probably one of the most significant numbers I have seen in the global dairy industry stats for a long time.