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U.S. Dairy Market Sees Positive Shift as Exports Rise, Challenges Remain for 2025

World 28.06.2024
Source: The DairyNews
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As the dairy industry moves through 2024 and into 2025, it faces a dynamic landscape characterized by changing prices and demand volatility. Kathleen Wolfley, an analyst with Ever.Ag, highlighted some emerging positive trends during a recent webinar by the Center for Dairy Excellence.
U.S. Dairy Market Sees Positive Shift as Exports Rise, Challenges Remain for 2025
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Export Dynamics:
April saw a 3% increase in U.S. dairy exports on a milk solids equivalent (MSE) basis year-over-year, according to the U.S. Dairy Export Council. This growth has helped mitigate declines from earlier months, balancing out the year's export performance. Notably, 75 million additional lbs. of cheese were exported, alleviating some domestic market pressures from 2023 and finding markets in Mexico, South Korea, and Japan.

Impact of Pricing:
Wolfley emphasized the role of lower prices in 2024 in boosting international sales, particularly as global consumers remain price-sensitive. This strategy has been crucial for U.S. dairy exporters, helping them secure significant sales volume.

Concerns Over Competitiveness:
Despite these gains, recent increases in cheese prices have sparked concerns about the competitiveness of U.S. dairy products. Reports suggest that exports for the third quarter may not be as robust as those in the second quarter, raising questions about sustained market share.

Focus on Mexico:
Mexico remains a critical market, accounting for about 35% of U.S. cheese exports and nearly half of U.S. powder exports. Wolfley noted that uncertainties about Mexico's demand could impact U.S. export performance into late 2024 and 2025.

Looking Forward:
The U.S. dairy market's evolving dynamics underscore the necessity for continuous monitoring and strategic adjustments. As producers look ahead, staying informed and flexible will be essential to navigate the complex market conditions and maintain profitability in the global dairy sector.
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