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U.S. Dairy Exports face challenges despite bright spots in October

Australia 08.12.2023
Source: The DairyNews
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U.S. dairy exports in October continued to grapple with global challenges such as inflation and sluggish economic growth, hindering a full recovery.
U.S. Dairy Exports face challenges despite bright spots in October
While there were positive developments in whey proteins and cheese, the overall scenario was marked by declines in milk powder, butterfat, and other segments of the whey complex, writes The DairyNews with message to USEC.

The 6.6% decrease in year-over-year (YOY) milk solids equivalent (MSE) volume in October represented the ninth consecutive decline, albeit the smallest since March. This followed an average monthly decline of over 12% since April. The persistent impact of elevated global inflation and muted economic growth was evident not only for the U.S. but also among its major competitors like New Zealand and the EU.

October in US witnessed a substantial increase lactose shipments, with YOY volume rising by 20%, driven by strong demand from China. Notably, U.S. suppliers expanded WPC (less than 80% protein) exports for the first time since January, registering a 10% rise.

Despite these positive aspects, the strength in certain segments, including WPC, failed to offset sharp declines in U.S. shipments of dry and modified whey, resulting in an overall 12% decline in U.S. whey exports for the month. Reduced demand from China's pig sector continued to impact overall U.S. whey export volume.

U.S. cheese sales faced a 4% YOY decline in October, with notable decreases in shipments to Japan and Korea. However, this decline was mitigated by a 54% increase in U.S. cheese exports to Mexico and a significant 145% increase in volume to China. The grated cheese category emerged as a star performer, with YOY shipments rising by 39% in October.

On the downside, YOY U.S. SMP exports fell by 11%, with declines from major buyers, including Mexico and Southeast Asia. Additionally, U.S. butterfat exports experienced a significant drop, with YOY volume falling by 72% in October.

The article further delves into the dynamics of U.S. dairy exports, highlighting the performance of grated cheese and exploring the unexpected strength in U.S. lactose exports, particularly to China. Despite facing challenges, U.S. lactose exports have demonstrated resilience, driven by a 7% increase through October.

While several theories are proposed to explain this surge in lactose demand, including inventory building and potential applications in milk powder standardization due to China's domestic milk production growth, the precise explanation remains uncertain. Nevertheless, the message by USDEC anticipates a potential slowdown in lactose trade to China in the coming months due to higher prices and reduced local milk production.

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