Trump’s ‘America First’ Policy Raises Tariff Concerns for Exporters
Source: DairyNews.today
President-elect Donald Trump’s protectionist “America First” agenda, buoyed by a decisive election victory and Republican control of Congress, has sparked concerns among exporters as the United States gears up for potential sweeping import tariffs.
Trump’s campaign rhetoric focused on imposing tariffs ranging from 10% to 20% on imports, with China singled out for alleged intellectual property theft and unfair trade practices. Proposed tariffs on Chinese goods could climb as high as 100%, echoing recent European Union measures, which slapped a 45.3% duty on Chinese-made electric vehicles (EVs) following anti-subsidy investigations.
The EU probe cited preferential financing, subsidies, and below-market costs for materials and land as factors giving Chinese manufacturers an edge. EU leaders fear becoming a dumping ground for China’s excess EV production capacity, estimated at 3 million units annually—twice the size of Europe’s market.
New Zealand Exporters at Risk
While Trump’s trade agenda primarily targets China, smaller trading partners like New Zealand could face collateral damage. The U.S. is New Zealand’s largest market for beef and wine and the second-largest for lamb, with total exports to the U.S. valued at $8.8 billion in 2022. Key categories include beef ($2.2 billion), lamb ($1.2 billion), wine ($800 million), and dairy ($1.2 billion).
Economist John Ballingall of Sense Partners estimates that a blanket 20% tariff on New Zealand goods could cost U.S. importers an additional $1.76 billion annually. Sheepmeat exporters are particularly vulnerable, as the U.S. market grows while demand in China remains flat.
Political and Market Implications
New Zealand’s low-fat grinding beef, which complements domestic U.S. beef, may escape direct targeting. However, powerful U.S. agriculture lobby groups, particularly from the sheep and dairy industries, could push for tighter restrictions, citing the Republican policy platform’s emphasis on protecting domestic agriculture.
While tariffs are often framed as protecting local industries, they could backfire on consumers by raising food prices. One of Trump’s campaign promises was to address the high cost of living—a factor that may temper his willingness to impose sweeping agricultural tariffs.
New Zealand exporters have adopted a cautious approach, acknowledging the risk while hoping to remain outside the spotlight of Trump’s trade crackdown. However, with Trump set to assume office on January 20, uncertainties persist over how his policies will unfold and whether New Zealand might become an unintended casualty in broader trade conflicts.
The EU probe cited preferential financing, subsidies, and below-market costs for materials and land as factors giving Chinese manufacturers an edge. EU leaders fear becoming a dumping ground for China’s excess EV production capacity, estimated at 3 million units annually—twice the size of Europe’s market.
New Zealand Exporters at Risk
While Trump’s trade agenda primarily targets China, smaller trading partners like New Zealand could face collateral damage. The U.S. is New Zealand’s largest market for beef and wine and the second-largest for lamb, with total exports to the U.S. valued at $8.8 billion in 2022. Key categories include beef ($2.2 billion), lamb ($1.2 billion), wine ($800 million), and dairy ($1.2 billion).
Economist John Ballingall of Sense Partners estimates that a blanket 20% tariff on New Zealand goods could cost U.S. importers an additional $1.76 billion annually. Sheepmeat exporters are particularly vulnerable, as the U.S. market grows while demand in China remains flat.
Political and Market Implications
New Zealand’s low-fat grinding beef, which complements domestic U.S. beef, may escape direct targeting. However, powerful U.S. agriculture lobby groups, particularly from the sheep and dairy industries, could push for tighter restrictions, citing the Republican policy platform’s emphasis on protecting domestic agriculture.
While tariffs are often framed as protecting local industries, they could backfire on consumers by raising food prices. One of Trump’s campaign promises was to address the high cost of living—a factor that may temper his willingness to impose sweeping agricultural tariffs.
New Zealand exporters have adopted a cautious approach, acknowledging the risk while hoping to remain outside the spotlight of Trump’s trade crackdown. However, with Trump set to assume office on January 20, uncertainties persist over how his policies will unfold and whether New Zealand might become an unintended casualty in broader trade conflicts.
