Russia: record ice cream production in 2023 exceeded half a million tons
On February 5, the annual exhibition “ProdExpo 24” opens in Moscow - it traditionally brings together all participants in the Russian food market, including ice cream manufacturers, their distributors, as well as suppliers of equipment, raw materials and packaging. And it was on this day that all players in the ice cream market were pleased with the results of the year by Rosstat - in the past 2023, the production of the cold delicacy for the first time exceeded half a million tons.
The market seems to have now turned its face to ice cream - for many food products in 2023, demand was falling, while ice cream sales were growing. Perhaps now the debate about the record year in the history of Russian ice cream will finally end - the result of 2021 has been repeatedly questioned by many experts - the overestimation was then estimated at around 40-50 thousand tons. We will now take the minimum error of 40 thousand tons and finally fix the result for 2022 at 487 thousand tons.
On the lower infographic you can see the monthly production of ice cream in the Russian Federation, and starting fr om the first months of the current 2024 it will be possible to see how successfully the new season has begun, and how we are progressing relative to the record schedule of 2023.
Traditionally, a third of Russian ice cream production is provided by factories in the Central Federal District. Of course, this is the flagship of our ice cream industry - almost all the industry leaders are located there (from the TOP-30: two of the three Iceberry factories, the Fronteri factory, one of the two Unilever factories, the Clean Line factory and Dmitrovsky MK, one of the two factories of “Russian Cold”, Belgorod and Lipetsk HC, “Baskin Robbins”). In 2023, this flagship showed very modest growth results of +10.7%, but the absolute growth figure is impressive - 15,600 tons.
The main newsmaker in 2023 is the Southern Federal District (80,664 tons), wh ere the companies Renna, Proxima and Kuban-Ice Cream are located. The Southern Federal District increased production volumes by a fantastic 25.9% (with an average Russian growth of 12.0%).
Particularly noteworthy is the Volga Federal District - 92,833 tons. Traditionally, this is the second leader of the Russian ice cream industry with developed production clusters in Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Nizhny Novgorod and Samara regions (fr om the TOP 30: Chelny-Kholod, Slavitsa, Komos Group, Bashkirsky Kholod, Pospel, “Hummingbird”, Kalinov Bridge, “Volga-Ice”, “Sam-Po”, “White Valley”, “Saratov-Kholod”). The Volga Federal District is practically not developing (in 2023, production increased by only 3.0%, despite the fact that the largest investment projects implemented in the industry in the last 2-3 years are concentrated here.
Comparable in volume is the Siberian Federal District (90,087 tons), wh ere one of the two factories “Unilever”, “Grospiron”, “Polaris” is located, one of the two factories “Slavitsa” and “Russian Cold”, “NK-Group”, “ Sibkholod”, Angaria”, “Gulliver”, “Eskimo” and “Kupinskoye Ice Cream” grew more significantly than the previous one - by 10.9% (or 8,800 tons).
The North-Western Federal District (45,335 tons) after the closure of the largest factories in St. Petersburg, Kladolkombinat 1 and Petrokholoda, lost its leading position. Of the Top 20, only the Vologda factory Iceberry and Talosto remained there, but the region showed an increase of 13.9% (or 4,600 tons).
Among the federal districts of the second echelon was the Ural Federal District (22,445 tons - Frost and Khladokombinat No. 3 factories), which during the period under study increased production volumes by 22.0% (or 4,100 tons).
In the North Caucasus Federal District (11,969 tons), the macro-regional statistics of ice cream production are strongly influenced by the performance indicators of the Stavropol factories “Kholod” and “Iney” (the district increased production volumes by 10.6%).
At the beginning of 2023, ice cream factories carried out a noticeable increase in prices (in January-March 2023, prices grew by 32-33% compared to the same months in 2022). In April-June 2023, it was possible to slow down inflation growth to 16-19%, and in October-November 2023, price growth decreased to minimum values (7.1% and 8.5%, respectively). In November-December 2023, factory selling prices for ice cream fell to the level of January 2023 - an average of 311 rubles from the factory for the year.
Both factories and retailers are trying to curb the rise in retail shelf prices. If in January-April 2023, compared to the same months of 2022, consumer (shelf) prices for 1 kg of ice cream grew by 11.7 - 22.9%, then in July-November 2023, the dynamics of price growth year-on-year sharply slowed down to 6 - 7% (refusal to increase prices, more active price promotions, etc.) - on average for the year 684 rubles on the retail shelf.
Speaking, as usual, about the market shares in physical and monetary terms of the Russian industry leaders, research companies will complete their reports only by mid-February and their results will be presented simultaneously with the presentation of the “Rating of Ice Cream Manufacturers 2023” in March of this year. We have already written about the growth of private labels in the Russian market, about some imbalance in the dynamics of the family and impulse cold delicacy categories, and by the same March date we will prepare with European colleagues a comparison of the dynamics of private labels, family and impulse categories in Russia with trends in both Eastern and Western Europe , and worldwide. During the presentation of the “Ratings” we will also touch on the difficulties and opportunities in export markets, trends in sugar-free ice cream, vegan and other global areas of product development.
If we talk about market consolidation, then two timid acquisitions - the purchase by Clean Line of the Novosibirsk manufacturer Paleta and the consolidation of the Kursk HC by the Belarusian player Nordar - are not such large-scale projects and will not have a significant impact on the market. We did not wait for the Iceberry company to purchase one of the Siberians and therefore the capital’s ones are already building a new ice cream workshop in Vologda, and Food Union, in turn, refused the deal in the Central Federal District.
Leaders are carefully exploring the relevance of advertising support; we saw this already in 2023 and this season - everything should only intensify. “Renna” suddenly tested the rebranding of curd cheeses - clean, modern, informative. For some reason, something tells us that we can expect a design update in the main product - ice cream - in the very near future.
Our multinational manufacturers are also not standing still - after February 2022 they announced the impossibility of advertising, which means there is no advertising on TV, SMM and other things, but everyone has seriously stepped up promotion in retail outlets, and next season we can only expect increased trade. marketing activities. Of course, each of them lacks imports: “Froneri” would clearly be helped by the European Bestseller in the “Nuii” popsicle, and the Russian “Unilever” could definitely use multi-packs, but all of them have what they have already announced for some reason on the market and will not be able to change in the near future.
Until now, Dmitrovsky MK also remains on our research panel - their Svitlogorye popsicle is growing not only in the Russian market, but is also conquering export territories. Everyone has long noted their analogy with Ritter sport chocolate: “Cylindrical, Covered, Modern.” But, already in January 2024, my Russian colleague suddenly asked a strange question: “Everything is clear with their popsicles, but they “went” into the horns and... it seems that they are already selling more than many players.” I only answered one thing: “We told you...”.
