October 2024 Price Trends in China’s Livestock and Feed Markets: A Strategic Analysis
Source: DairyNews.today
Recent data from China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reveals varying price trends across livestock products and feed throughout October 2024.
This analysis explores the price dynamics in beef, lamb, fresh milk, and feed, contextualizing them within macroeconomic and policy frameworks. We also provide forward-looking predictions to support strategic decision-making for industry stakeholders.
1. Beef and Lamb Prices Show Narrowing Declines
The first four weeks of October saw a continued decline in beef and lamb prices, though the rate of decline has narrowed over time. As of the fourth week, the national average beef price was 67.37 yuan/kg—a 0.2% drop from the previous week and a year-on-year decrease of 18.3%. Similarly, lamb prices averaged 70.14 yuan/kg, suggesting an adequate supply amid low consumer demand.
Regional Price Discrepancies: Notable price differences exist across regions, driven by variables such as transportation costs, breeding expenses, and localized demand. For instance, the price for beef in East China reached 31.29 yuan/kg, while it stood lower at 27.18 yuan/kg in Northeast China, indicating potential regional supply chain opportunities.
2. Fresh Milk Prices Stabilize with Significant Year-on-Year Drop
While beef and lamb prices trended downward, fresh milk prices remained stable. The fourth week of October saw the average fresh milk price at 3.13 yuan/kg across ten major dairy-producing provinces, unchanged from the prior week but reflecting a 15.9% year-on-year decrease. This stability in fresh milk prices underlines a balanced supply-demand environment, yet the year-on-year drop reveals pressures on the dairy sector that could impact profitability.
Market Implications: Stability in fresh milk prices is crucial for the dairy industry’s growth, especially as consumer demand for dairy products strengthens. However, the decrease from last year suggests that dairy producers must refine cost management and adapt marketing strategies to retain competitiveness.
3. Feed Prices Decline, Corn and Soybean Meal Reach Historic Lows
Feed prices showed a consistent downward trend throughout October, with corn and soybean meal prices hitting their lowest levels in four years. By the fourth week, corn was priced at 2.39 yuan/kg, reflecting a 0.4% drop from the previous week and a significant 19.0% year-on-year decrease. Similarly, soybean meal prices averaged 3.35 yuan/kg, down 0.9% week-on-week and 27.0% year-on-year.
Positive Implications for Livestock Production: The declining feed costs are favorable for livestock producers, as they reduce input costs and support profitability. However, these reductions are subject to fluctuations influenced by international agricultural markets, domestic policy changes, and shifts in demand. Livestock producers should remain vigilant and adopt flexible procurement strategies.
4. Macroeconomic and Policy Impact Analysis
China’s livestock and feed markets are subject to broad macroeconomic factors, including the global economic slowdown and rising trade protectionism, both of which increase agricultural product price volatility. Additionally, domestic policy adjustments—such as heightened environmental standards, agricultural subsidies, and revised import policies—are integral to market dynamics.
Strategic Recommendations: As China’s regulatory landscape evolves, livestock enterprises need to integrate risk management strategies and cost control measures into their operations to remain resilient against policy shifts. Monitoring both domestic and international market developments will be key in adapting to an increasingly volatile environment.
5. Future Price Trend Predictions
Based on current data, we anticipate the following trends for livestock products and feed prices:
Beef and Lamb: Prices are expected to maintain a stable yet slightly declining trend. Given the softened consumer demand, livestock producers should prioritize quality control and tailor their marketing strategies to enhance competitiveness in a crowded market.
Fresh Milk: With rising consumer interest in dairy, fresh milk prices are likely to exhibit stable growth. To capitalize on this trend, dairy companies should focus on production management and quality assurance to ensure consistent product availability.
Feed: Feed prices are anticipated to fluctuate, influenced by market demand and international agricultural dynamics. Livestock companies should leverage market insights to develop cost-efficient procurement plans and optimize their inventory, particularly for corn and soybean meal.
October 2024: Key Price Indicators in Livestock and Feed
According to data from 500 county-level markets, the fourth week of October revealed the following price trends:
Beef and Lamb: The national average beef price was 67.37 yuan/kg, down 0.2% week-on-week and 18.3% year-on-year. In core regions, such as Hebei and Xinjiang, the price was 55.95 yuan/kg. Lamb prices averaged 69.89 yuan/kg nationally, showing similar declines.
Fresh Milk: Prices in major dairy-producing provinces averaged 3.13 yuan/kg, consistent with the previous week but down 15.9% year-on-year.
Feed: Corn prices fell to 2.39 yuan/kg, with a 0.4% weekly decline and 19.0% year-on-year decrease. Soybean meal averaged 3.35 yuan/kg, down 0.9% from the prior week and 27.0% from the previous year.
Conclusion
China’s livestock and feed markets demonstrate mixed trends in October 2024, driven by both supply-demand dynamics and broader macroeconomic and policy influences. For livestock enterprises, proactive market monitoring and enhanced risk management will be essential to navigate these shifts. By adapting cost controls and optimizing strategies, businesses can position themselves to tackle market challenges and capitalize on new opportunities in the evolving agri-food landscape.
Note: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered a substitute for official market data.
1. Beef and Lamb Prices Show Narrowing Declines
The first four weeks of October saw a continued decline in beef and lamb prices, though the rate of decline has narrowed over time. As of the fourth week, the national average beef price was 67.37 yuan/kg—a 0.2% drop from the previous week and a year-on-year decrease of 18.3%. Similarly, lamb prices averaged 70.14 yuan/kg, suggesting an adequate supply amid low consumer demand.
Regional Price Discrepancies: Notable price differences exist across regions, driven by variables such as transportation costs, breeding expenses, and localized demand. For instance, the price for beef in East China reached 31.29 yuan/kg, while it stood lower at 27.18 yuan/kg in Northeast China, indicating potential regional supply chain opportunities.
2. Fresh Milk Prices Stabilize with Significant Year-on-Year Drop
While beef and lamb prices trended downward, fresh milk prices remained stable. The fourth week of October saw the average fresh milk price at 3.13 yuan/kg across ten major dairy-producing provinces, unchanged from the prior week but reflecting a 15.9% year-on-year decrease. This stability in fresh milk prices underlines a balanced supply-demand environment, yet the year-on-year drop reveals pressures on the dairy sector that could impact profitability.
Market Implications: Stability in fresh milk prices is crucial for the dairy industry’s growth, especially as consumer demand for dairy products strengthens. However, the decrease from last year suggests that dairy producers must refine cost management and adapt marketing strategies to retain competitiveness.
3. Feed Prices Decline, Corn and Soybean Meal Reach Historic Lows
Feed prices showed a consistent downward trend throughout October, with corn and soybean meal prices hitting their lowest levels in four years. By the fourth week, corn was priced at 2.39 yuan/kg, reflecting a 0.4% drop from the previous week and a significant 19.0% year-on-year decrease. Similarly, soybean meal prices averaged 3.35 yuan/kg, down 0.9% week-on-week and 27.0% year-on-year.
Positive Implications for Livestock Production: The declining feed costs are favorable for livestock producers, as they reduce input costs and support profitability. However, these reductions are subject to fluctuations influenced by international agricultural markets, domestic policy changes, and shifts in demand. Livestock producers should remain vigilant and adopt flexible procurement strategies.
4. Macroeconomic and Policy Impact Analysis
China’s livestock and feed markets are subject to broad macroeconomic factors, including the global economic slowdown and rising trade protectionism, both of which increase agricultural product price volatility. Additionally, domestic policy adjustments—such as heightened environmental standards, agricultural subsidies, and revised import policies—are integral to market dynamics.
Strategic Recommendations: As China’s regulatory landscape evolves, livestock enterprises need to integrate risk management strategies and cost control measures into their operations to remain resilient against policy shifts. Monitoring both domestic and international market developments will be key in adapting to an increasingly volatile environment.
5. Future Price Trend Predictions
Based on current data, we anticipate the following trends for livestock products and feed prices:
Beef and Lamb: Prices are expected to maintain a stable yet slightly declining trend. Given the softened consumer demand, livestock producers should prioritize quality control and tailor their marketing strategies to enhance competitiveness in a crowded market.
Fresh Milk: With rising consumer interest in dairy, fresh milk prices are likely to exhibit stable growth. To capitalize on this trend, dairy companies should focus on production management and quality assurance to ensure consistent product availability.
Feed: Feed prices are anticipated to fluctuate, influenced by market demand and international agricultural dynamics. Livestock companies should leverage market insights to develop cost-efficient procurement plans and optimize their inventory, particularly for corn and soybean meal.
October 2024: Key Price Indicators in Livestock and Feed
According to data from 500 county-level markets, the fourth week of October revealed the following price trends:
Beef and Lamb: The national average beef price was 67.37 yuan/kg, down 0.2% week-on-week and 18.3% year-on-year. In core regions, such as Hebei and Xinjiang, the price was 55.95 yuan/kg. Lamb prices averaged 69.89 yuan/kg nationally, showing similar declines.
Fresh Milk: Prices in major dairy-producing provinces averaged 3.13 yuan/kg, consistent with the previous week but down 15.9% year-on-year.
Feed: Corn prices fell to 2.39 yuan/kg, with a 0.4% weekly decline and 19.0% year-on-year decrease. Soybean meal averaged 3.35 yuan/kg, down 0.9% from the prior week and 27.0% from the previous year.
Conclusion
China’s livestock and feed markets demonstrate mixed trends in October 2024, driven by both supply-demand dynamics and broader macroeconomic and policy influences. For livestock enterprises, proactive market monitoring and enhanced risk management will be essential to navigate these shifts. By adapting cost controls and optimizing strategies, businesses can position themselves to tackle market challenges and capitalize on new opportunities in the evolving agri-food landscape.
Note: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered a substitute for official market data.
