Brazil's Rural Debt Reached R$205bn Beyond Delinquency Figures
Of the R$205bn in rural debt identified in the study, R$105bn had been renegotiated and R$31bn extended. A further R$48bn was in default and R$21bn was overdue. In August 2024, the corresponding problematic balance was R$95bn, or 12.5% of the portfolio. Over two years, the total more than doubled, while renegotiated debt increased from R$39bn to R$105bn.
In 2025, bank debt represented 94% of agricultural income. That was within the 87% to 109% range recorded between 2013 and 2019, when December delinquency averaged 2.1%. The December 2025 rate was 6.6%. In 2014, debt stood at 109% of agricultural income and arrears were 1.3%. Researchers Lucilio Alves and Geraldo Barros said the changes concerned the cost, composition and distribution of debt rather than its size.
The average annual rate on rural credit for individuals rose from 6.3% in 2021 to 12.2% in 2025. Over the same period, the average Selic rate increased from 4.4% to 14.3%. An estimate based on the loan portfolio put annual interest payments at about R$34bn in 2021 and R$99bn in 2025, equivalent to an increase from 3.9% to 11.4% of agricultural income.
Measured in agricultural output, the cost of borrowing also changed. In 2020 and 2021, borrowers returned less product than they had received, with rates of minus 33% and minus 19%. In 2022 and 2023, the same debt represented an annual cost of 16% and 29% in product terms. Delinquency began rising in mid-2023.
Loans priced at market rates, which follow the Selic, recorded delinquency of 17.6%, compared with 3.8% for regulated-rate loans. Although market-priced loans accounted for about 43% of the balance owed by individuals, they represented roughly 77% of overdue balances. Their share of new lending increased from 5% in 2013 to 47% in 2023.
The effects differed across agricultural activities and regions. Between 2021 and 2025, grain prices fell by 28% in real terms, while livestock prices rose by 12% and sugar-cane and coffee prices by 55%. Agricultural-sector income declined from R$599bn to R$539bn, whereas livestock-sector income rose from R$270bn to R$331bn. A tonne of DAP fertiliser required an average of 29.1 sacks of soybeans in 2025, compared with 16.7 sacks during 2010–19.
Rio Grande do Sul held 13% of the national portfolio but accounted for 21% of the problematic balance and 27% of renegotiated and extended debt. Its delinquency rate was 3.2%. Extensions followed the floods of May 2024 and were converted into renegotiations from 2025 onwards. In the grain-producing states of the Center-West and Matopiba, delinquency reached 8.8% in Goiás, 7.4% in Mato Grosso do Sul and 6.3% in Mato Grosso, and exceeded 15% in Maranhão and Tocantins.
The study also covered debt beyond banks. Of 517 agricultural-business judicial-recovery filings recorded by NEOT in the first quarter of 2026, 212, or 41%, came from other parts of the supply chain: 83 input retailers, 62 agro-industrial companies and mills, 41 logistics and storage firms, and 26 input manufacturers. Their total liabilities were R$38bn, including R$31.5bn in debts above R$30m.
Agricultural investment rose 71% from 2019 to 2025, reaching R$260bn from R$152bn. In 2025, 64% of investment came from sources outside official rural credit, including farmers' own funds, rural product notes, supplier finance and leasing. The outstanding stock of rural product notes reached R$561bn, although available data do not distinguish between equity and debt.
The government's most extensive restructuring programme had renegotiated R$5.98bn by 5 October under Provisional Measure 1,376/2026. That was about 5% of the R$120bn expected by the government. Investment loans accounted for 1.3% of the amount, while 80% was allocated in Rio Grande do Sul. Banco do Brasil, the country's largest rural lender, renegotiated slightly more than R$430m, compared with R$3.17bn by Sicredi. The study's authors said assessing liquidity and solvency separately would require data on delinquency by loan purpose, rates on bilateral renegotiations and debt outside the financial system.
