Rabobank: global milk consumption will increase

According to the expert, the main factors for market growth will be demographic growth, as well as a focus on personalized nutrition in developed countries.

In China, according to Rabobank estimates, a significant increase in per capita milk consumption will continue. For example, in 2021, milk consumption in China increased by 0.7% and amounted to 13.7 kg. Per capita. The growth rates thus exceeded those of Japan and South Korea.

Thus, even with a decreasing population in China, by 2030 the market volume will grow significantly - by more than 7 million tons.

Due to population growth, market volumes in countries such as the USA (+6.95 million tons) and Brazil (+5.05 million tons) will increase significantly. Significant market growth is also expected in the African continent - in Kenya, Ethiopia, Egypt, Uganda, Tanzania, Nigeria, Congo, Angola and Niger.

In addition, according to Rabobank experts, the structure of consumption of dairy products will also change towards personalized nutrition in developed world economies.

In China, by 2030 the number of people under 20 years of age will decrease by 61 million people. At the same time, the number of people over 50 years of age will increase by 100 million people.

Thus, the largest increase in milk imports until 2030 will occur in South America (3.3 million tons), Southeast Asia (6.6 million tons), China (7.7 million tons), Central Africa (3.3 million tons).

The main exporter will be the United States with an increase in supplies of +7.5 million tons. The EU's export potential will decrease by 4.1 million tons, New Zealand - by 1.7 million tons.

The need for export supplies will increase by 33 million tons against the backdrop of a fall in the export potential of the EU, New Zealand, Belarus and Ukraine.