China's Dairy Industry Overview - 2023

China has positioned itself as a major force in the global dairy market, driven by its massive production capacities and evolving consumption trends. Strategic developments within its domestic market have reinforced its role on the international stage.

Key Statistics

Number of Dairy Cattle: Due to ongoing agricultural reforms and statistical discrepancies, exact figures are unavailable.

Milk Production Volume: Approximately 36 million tons per year.

Milk Processing Volume: Estimated at 60.18 million tons per year.

Cheese Production Volume: Experiencing growth, but specific figures remain undisclosed.

Milk Powder and Whey Production: Notable increase in whole milk powder production with an 11.0% reduction in skimmed milk powder exports.

Key Enterprises

• Junlebao Dairy Group Co., Ltd.: Engaged in IPO and stock market listings.
• Bright Dairy Holdings: Involved in financial bailout efforts for Synlait.
• Yili Group: Holds significant market influence.
• Mengniu Dairy: A dominant force within China's dairy sector.

Export and Import of Dairy Products

Exports (2023): Skimmed milk powder exports have decreased by 11.0%.

Imports (2023): Despite a domestic surplus, imports of specialized high-quality products continue, totaling 17.18 million tons in milk equivalency.

Significant Events

• IPO and Listing: Junlebao Dairy's public stock offering marks a significant milestone.
• Bailout Efforts: Bright Dairy's involvement in Synlait's financial recovery is noteworthy.
• Production Measures: Initiatives to stabilize the market by controlling dairy and beef production.
• Global Impact: China's growing demand significantly affects global markets, particularly in Poland.
• Market Trends: Ultra-high temperature (UHT) milk sales projected to reach USD 15.2 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 6.5%.
• Regulatory Developments: Proposed updates to national food safety standards for sterilized milk.
• Trade Breakthroughs: Enhanced agricultural trade agreements via the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC).
• Award: Mengniu's Ningxia plant achieved 'Lighthouse factory' certification from the World Economic Forum.
• Milk Powder Needs: Domestic production satisfies 60% of national requirements.
• U.S. Trade Relations: A 13% decline in U.S. dairy exports to China as of September 2023.
• Political Proposals: Former U.S. President Trump's proposal of a 10% tariff on imports from China due to pharmaceutical export policies.
• National Dairy Innovation Center: Officially began operations.
• U.S. Exports: High-protein whey (WPC80+) exports to China surged 225% year-over-year.

The Chinese dairy industry, characterized by surplus production and evolving consumer preferences, continues to navigate complex international trade dependencies. The role of enterprises such as China Youran Dairy Group Limited showcases innovation and strategic projects. Additionally, China's position as a top-five buyer of Russian dairy products illustrates shifts in trade strategies. While domestic production pressures milk prices downward, firms such as Danone and Yakult Honsha Co. pursue sustainable growth. Completing two Five-Year Plans in a decade underscores the profound significance of China's dairy industry, although challenges remain regarding changing consumption patterns and import demands. China's influence extends to being a top export market for Malaysian palm oil products in 2024, reflecting its ongoing impact on global trends.

The U.S. administration plans a 10% tariff on Chinese products.

Modified: 2025/02/05

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