In 2024, the world's leading exporters will reduce wheat exports
According to Rusagrotrans calculations, 17.1 million hectares were sown with winter wheat in Russia (according to official data - 16.9 million hectares), thus, the increase compared to last year amounted to 700 thousand hectares, which suggests that The area under winter wheat is being restored to the 2022 level.
Among the current trends, Igor Pavensky noted an increase in sown areas in the Volga region in 2023 - by 250 thousand hectares, in the central part of the country - by 500 thousand hectares, that is, the potential for next year is being laid.
The speaker predicts that in 2024 the gross wheat harvest in Russia will reach 89.1 million tons (in 2023 - 92.6 million tons), grain - almost 137 million tons (in 2023 - 145 million tons).
According to research by AC Rusagrotrans for the 2023/2024 season, the wheat harvest in the main countries is expected to be 24.9 million tons lower than last season - 614.9 million tons (almost 80% of the world volume), which is due to a drop in wheat production in six out of 12 countries. The most significant decline in harvest is expected in Russia (from 104.2 million tons to 92.6 million tons), Australia (from 39.2 million tons to 24 million tons) and Kazakhstan (from 16.4 million tons to 12 million tons).
An increase in the harvest is possible only in Argentina - from 12.6 million tons this season to 15 million tons in the future, perhaps a little higher. The USA will give a slight increase - from 44.9 million tons to 49.3 million tons.
Igor Pavensky also reported that in the 2023/2024 season, a decrease in exports is predicted in 6 countries out of eight main exporters (80% of global foreign trade). The most significant decline in supplies will be shown by Australia (from 31 million tons in the 2022/2023 season to 18 million tons), less significant - by the EU countries (from 32.3 million tons to 30 million tons), the USA (from 20.3 million tons to 19 million tons), Canada (from 25.5 million tons to 23 million tons), Ukraine (from 16.8 million tons to 13 million tons) and Kazakhstan (from 7.9 million tons to 5.5 million tons). Exports from Russia will remain almost at the same level - 49 million tons (in the 2022/2023 season - 49.3 million tons). A significant increase in exports from Argentina is expected - from 2.8 million tons to 9.5 million tons.
In total, for the main exporting countries, except Russia, a reduction in exports by the 2022/2023 season is projected by 18.5 million tons - to 118 million tons - this is the lowest figure since the 2018/20219 season.
“Worldwide, more wheat will be produced than consumed. Prices continue to stagnate, which is influenced by a number of factors, including huge exports from Russia and Eastern Europe, a shortage of dollar liquidity in a number of importing countries in North Africa and the Middle East,” said Igor Pavensky.
From July to October 2023, 10 countries became the main importer of Russian wheat, with Egypt (increasing from 74 to 81%), Turkey (increasing from 70 to 88%), Bangladesh (from 34 to 74%), Algeria (from 27 to 74%) leading the way. 59%), Saudi Arabia (from 55 to 65%). Iran is 100% supplied with Russian wheat.
“Two years ago, the list of importers from Russia did not include countries such as Algeria and Saudi Arabia. In addition, the Russian Federation has expanded the geography of wheat supplies, which is now being transported to Brazil and Mexico in large volumes of half a million tons. The geography is expanding due to the second good harvest and the accumulated wheat reserves in the country,” summed up Igor Pavensky.
