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USDA: Dairy Outlook for 2024 Adjusted Amidst Forecasted Changes

USA 24.04.2024
Source: The DairyNews
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In its April 2024 update, the USDA provided insights into the dairy industry's trajectory, revealing adjustments in various key metrics.
USDA: Dairy Outlook for 2024 Adjusted Amidst Forecasted Changes
The forecasted dairy herd size for 2024 remains stable at 9,355 thousand head, with USDA reporting no change from the previous month. However, an anticipated decrease in yield per cow throughout the year has led to a revision, with milk production now forecasted at 226.3 billion pounds, marking a decrease of 1.0 billion pounds from the previous estimate.

Dairy imports have been adjusted upward, with projections indicating an increase in both milk-fat and skim solids basis imports for 2024. Higher import volumes are expected across various products, including cheese, butter, infant formula, yogurt, dry whey products, and canned milk.

On the export front, strong international demand has prompted an upward adjustment in the dairy export forecast on a milk-fat basis to 11.3 billion pounds. However, the export forecast on a skim-solids basis has been lowered to 49.7 billion pounds. Shifts in export shipments are anticipated, with increases expected in skim milk powder, cheese, and butter, while decreases are forecasted for dry whey products and lactose.

Domestic disappearance projections have been revised downward, with decreases in both milk-fat and skim-solids basis forecasts. This adjustment reflects a decrease in domestic use, totaling 223.0 billion pounds on a milk-fat basis and 182.9 billion pounds on a skim-solids basis.

Adjusted forecasts for dairy product prices reflect recent market trends, with fluctuations observed across various categories. Notably, prices for Cheddar cheese and dry whey have decreased, while butter prices have risen. Consequently, the Class III milk price forecast has been adjusted downward to $16.20 per cwt, while the Class IV price forecast has been raised to $20.40 per cwt. The all-milk price for 2024 is now forecasted at $20.90 per cwt, down $0.35 from the previous month's projection.
Andrey Dykun
Andrey Dykun
"All-Ukrainian agrarian Council" / Ukrainian Agri Council. Charitable foundation SaveUA.in.Ua
I recently wrote about a conference where the results of the joint project of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (VAR) with the USAID AGRO Program were summarized. Today, as a result of this event, the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council, on behalf of the agrarians affected by the war, appealed to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine and the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine with a request to support the agricultural sector in the occupied and frontline regions.
Torsten Hemme, Founder & Chairman, Dairy expert
Torsten Hemme, Founder & Chairman, Dairy expert