Trump’s Deportation Plan Threatens Half of U.S. Agricultural Labor Force
Source: The DairyNews
Former President Donald Trump's proposed deportation plan could result in the removal of nearly 45 percent of all agricultural workers in the United States. This equates to approximately 950,000 of the estimated 2.2 million farmworkers who are unauthorized migrants working illegally on American farms and ranches.
Trump, who secured the Republican nomination for president two weeks ago, has consistently promoted this plan, which he describes as the "largest deportation effort in history." One of the states that would be severely impacted by this initiative is Wisconsin, commonly referred to as America's Dairyland. Both Trump and Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris are vying for this crucial "purple state" in the upcoming November elections.
The repercussions of Trump's deportation plan could push Wisconsin voters towards Harris, particularly since a 2023 University of Wisconsin survey revealed that an estimated 70% of labor on the state's dairy farms is performed by over 10,000 undocumented migrant workers. The survey emphasized that Wisconsin farmers are heavily reliant on this unauthorized workforce, warning that without them, the entire dairy industry would collapse overnight.
This issue is not confined to Wisconsin. According to the National Milk Producers Federation, immigrant labor constitutes 51 percent of all dairy labor nationwide, with dairies employing immigrant labor producing 79 percent of the U.S. milk supply. Therefore, Trump's deportation plan could have immediate and catastrophic effects on the U.S. dairy industry, jeopardizing the production and supply of milk and dairy products.
California, with its extensive agricultural sector encompassing vegetable, nut, and fruit production, faces similar challenges. The Center for Farmworker Families estimates that approximately 75% of the state's farmworkers are undocumented. Deporting these seasonal farmworkers would disrupt California's significant contribution to the nation's food supply, potentially shutting down its vast fresh produce and orchard sectors.
The impact of deporting undocumented workers extends beyond agriculture. In California and other states, undocumented workers are also employed in construction, hospitality, and retail sectors, which are already experiencing severe labor shortages. The Los Angeles Times reports that deporting these workers would exacerbate these shortages and negatively affect the economy.
Natasha Sarin, a Yale University professor, highlighted the broader economic implications, noting that GDP would likely fall, and inflation would rise under Trump's plan. This view is supported by extensive economic research, including a comprehensive study by University of Colorado professor Chloe East, which concluded that deporting 1 million immigrants would result in 88,000 lost jobs.
The interconnected nature of the labor force means that losing unskilled, lower-paid workers to deportation would lead to delays, increased costs, and skilled laborers having to take on less skilled jobs, ultimately harming the overall U.S. economy.
The Congressional Budget Office projects that the U.S. labor force will grow by 5.2 million people and contribute $7 trillion to the economy by 2033, primarily due to net immigration. This suggests that focusing on retaining and integrating existing migrant laborers, who are already trained and working, would be more beneficial to the U.S. economy than expending resources on mass deportations.
The repercussions of Trump's deportation plan could push Wisconsin voters towards Harris, particularly since a 2023 University of Wisconsin survey revealed that an estimated 70% of labor on the state's dairy farms is performed by over 10,000 undocumented migrant workers. The survey emphasized that Wisconsin farmers are heavily reliant on this unauthorized workforce, warning that without them, the entire dairy industry would collapse overnight.
This issue is not confined to Wisconsin. According to the National Milk Producers Federation, immigrant labor constitutes 51 percent of all dairy labor nationwide, with dairies employing immigrant labor producing 79 percent of the U.S. milk supply. Therefore, Trump's deportation plan could have immediate and catastrophic effects on the U.S. dairy industry, jeopardizing the production and supply of milk and dairy products.
California, with its extensive agricultural sector encompassing vegetable, nut, and fruit production, faces similar challenges. The Center for Farmworker Families estimates that approximately 75% of the state's farmworkers are undocumented. Deporting these seasonal farmworkers would disrupt California's significant contribution to the nation's food supply, potentially shutting down its vast fresh produce and orchard sectors.
The impact of deporting undocumented workers extends beyond agriculture. In California and other states, undocumented workers are also employed in construction, hospitality, and retail sectors, which are already experiencing severe labor shortages. The Los Angeles Times reports that deporting these workers would exacerbate these shortages and negatively affect the economy.
Natasha Sarin, a Yale University professor, highlighted the broader economic implications, noting that GDP would likely fall, and inflation would rise under Trump's plan. This view is supported by extensive economic research, including a comprehensive study by University of Colorado professor Chloe East, which concluded that deporting 1 million immigrants would result in 88,000 lost jobs.
The interconnected nature of the labor force means that losing unskilled, lower-paid workers to deportation would lead to delays, increased costs, and skilled laborers having to take on less skilled jobs, ultimately harming the overall U.S. economy.
The Congressional Budget Office projects that the U.S. labor force will grow by 5.2 million people and contribute $7 trillion to the economy by 2033, primarily due to net immigration. This suggests that focusing on retaining and integrating existing migrant laborers, who are already trained and working, would be more beneficial to the U.S. economy than expending resources on mass deportations.
