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La Niña: Is It Time to Take It Seriously?

World 22.10.2024
Source: DairyNews.today
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La Niña is back in the headlines, with major international news outlets discussing its potential impact. However, Phil Duncan, a weather forecaster, raises questions about the actual significance of the current La Niña event and whether the headlines are more of a distraction than helpful.
La Niña: Is It Time to Take It Seriously?
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Despite headlines claiming "La Niña is coming," the details paint a different picture. A weak La Niña is expected, with a 60% chance of emerging through November, though it remains unclear how strong it will be. Moreover, if this La Niña turns out to be weak, the outlook could change. So, the hype around its arrival might be premature.

When it comes to official climate forecasting, Duncan prefers the Bureau of Meteorology's (BoM) comprehensive model, which averages global data from the most trusted nations. This model suggests a dip towards La Niña conditions in November, followed by a swift return to neutral or even El Niño-like conditions by early 2024. In other words, any La Niña impact may be short-lived.

As a forecaster, Duncan notes that long-range predictions can be distracting, especially when the situation is borderline. Nevertheless, he acknowledges the need to address La Niña as it continues to be a topic of concern, even if its impact on New Zealand appears minimal for now.

Over the coming weeks, La Niña-like conditions are expected to manifest more prominently to the north of New Zealand, with low-pressure systems finally dominating the region. However, at present, New Zealand remains largely unaffected, with high pressure still prevailing and the country experiencing drier-than-normal conditions.

In conclusion, while La Niña continues to generate headlines, Duncan advises caution, emphasizing that its effects may be less significant than anticipated, at least for now. For the moment, New Zealand’s weather remains largely unaffected, despite the global focus on this weather system.

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