China's Dairy Imports Surge 19%, Boosting Global Dairy Market

In a significant market move, China's dairy imports saw a dramatic increase of 19% in December compared to the previous year. This surge follows a 3.8% year-on-year rise in November, marking a definitive end to a 16-month period of declining imports.

The data, published by CLAL and analyzed by OCLA, reveals that the volume of imported dairy products in December reached 286,029 tons, a substantial increase from the previous year. Whole milk powder imports, in particular, more than doubled, reaching 43,130 tons compared to 20,483 tons in December 2023.

The increase in imports comes despite an overall 10% decline in imported volume and a 7% decrease in total revenue for 2024. The average value per ton rose from $4,139 to $4,269, a 3% increase, indicating that the overall decline was solely volume-driven, which fell by 11%.

Industry experts note that China's domestic milk production is showing signs of slowing down, sparking optimism for increased internal demand. As the world's largest dairy importer, these dynamics could shift international trade patterns significantly.

Global geopolitical factors, including trade tensions between the EU and China and changes in U.S. trade policy, remain critical areas affecting the market. Recently announced tariffs on China by President Trump could potentially affect China's economy, dampening demand.

The AHDB Dairy report underscores that decreased milk supply is altering commercial dynamics for China, with expectations for rising domestic needs. The global dairy industry is closely monitoring these developments, as they could determine future market directions.